랢햹훐맺볒뷰죚뾪럅뗄듎탲폫붥뷸탔 ꆪꆪ볦싛훐맺뷰죚뾪럅뗄슷뺶톡퓱 돂횾룕 (훐쓏쏱ퟥ듳톧뺭볃톧풺ꎬ뫾놱 커몺 430072) 햪튪ꎺ듓샭싛폫뺭퇩뷇뛈ꎬ놾컄싛횤쇋싳뷰얩뗄ꆰ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯듎탲샭싛ꆱꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ랢햹훐맺볒뗄뷰죚뾪럅ꎬ뇘탫힢훘듎탲뗄톡퓱뫍붥뷸탔뗄낲업ꎻ뇘탫퓚닆헾폫뫪맛뺭볃컈뚨ꎬ틔벰맺쓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯믹놾췪돉쳵볾쿂췆뷸ꆣ룹뻝뷰죚ퟔ평뮯듎탲샭싛ꎬ컒쏇죏캪훐맺뷰죚뾪럅돉냜뗃쪧뗄맘볼ꎬ퓚폚솢ퟣ폚맺쓚뗄뺭볃ꆢ뷰죚믹뒡ꎬ늢쟒폐튻룶짦벰듎탲톡퓱폫붥뷸낲업뗄슷뺶톡퓱ꆣ 맘볼듊ꎺ뷰죚뾪럅ꎻ듎탲폫붥뷸탔ꎻ뷰죚캣믺 훐춼럖샠뫅ꎺ 컄쿗뇪쪶싫ꎺA 튻ꆢ틽 퇔 퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏ꎬ컒맺뎤웚뿬쯙뗄뺭볃퓶뎤맩틲폚돉릦뗄뷰죚ퟔ평뮯룄룯ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ훍뫳폚쪵볊늿쏅룄룯뗄뷰죚룄룯ꎬ폖붫뿉쓜돉캪컒맺캴살뺭볃뗄ꆰ퓶뎤욿뺱ꆱꆣ듓떱잰뗄뺭볃뇭쿖뾴ꎬ뷰죚룄룯훍뫳퓚캢맛짏떼훂쇋뷏뗍뗄뷰엤훃킧싊ꎬ퓚뫪맛짏퓲퓬돉쇋퓋폃믵뇒헾닟살훎샭춨믵뷴쯵쓑폐ퟷ캪ꆣ웤듎ꎬퟷ캪훐맺볓죫WTO뗄뾪럅돐억ꎬ퓚캴살4쓪쓚컒맺붫훰늽쿲췢뾪럅틸탐튵폫놾쫐뎡ꆣ믹폚틔짏솽뗣샭평ꎬ컒맺쿠뛔훍뫳뗄뷰죚ퟔ평뮯룄룯붫훷뚯믲놻뚯뗘쪻죫뿬뎵뗀ꎬ늢붫ퟟ짏럖뷗뛎뗄뷰죚뾪럅횮슷ꆣ ퟔ20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살ꎬ탂탋쫐뎡맺볒뾪쪼늽죫뷰죚뾪럅뗄뗀슷ꆣ퓚뺭샺뾪럅횮돵뗄벸쓪뺭볃랱죙횮뫳ꎬ헢킩맺볒놬랢쇋뷰죚캣믺ꎬ폈웤틔1997쓪쒩랢짺뗄퇇훞뷰죚캣믺캪뗤탍ꆣ뛔듋ꎬ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄샭싛컄쿗ퟶ돶죧쿂뷢쫍ꎺ뷰죚뾪럅쓜퓶잿튻맺컼틽좫쟲솮볛뷰뗄쓜솦ꎬ늢춨맽뺺헹믺훆쳡룟맺쓚뷰죚쫐뎡뗄엤훃킧싊ꎬ뷸뛸듙뷸맺쓚뷰죚쫐뎡폫맺쏱뺭볃뗄랢햹ꎻ떫쫇ꎬ죧맻뷰죚뾪럅뗄듎탲늻떱믲횧돖늻ퟣꎬ뷰죚맺볊뮯붫쫇튻뎡퓖쓑ꆣ뛔폚컒맺헾뢮뗄뷰죚뾪럅뻶탄폫돐억ꎬ맺볊뷰죚볒퓚맘힢폫퓞짍뗄춬쪱ꎬ튲뇭듯쇋쯻쏇뛔탂탋쫐뎡맺볒뗄ꆰ뾪럅놯뻧ꆱ믡늻믡퓚훐맺훘퇝뗄잿쇒떣폇ꆣ쿔좻ꎬ훐맺뷰죚뾪럅돉냜뗃쪧뗄맘볼ꎬ퓚폚죧뫎톡퓱뫏샭뗄뾪럅슷뺶ꎬ늢쟒폐듎탲ꆢ붥뷸뗘췆탐뷰죚뾪럅ꎬ퓚믱좡뾪럅쫕틦뗄춬쪱ꎬ붫뷰죚럧쿕뿘훆퓚뿉틔돐쫜뗄랶캧쓚ꆣ퓚헢룶컊쳢짏ꎬ쎻폐볈뚨뗄쒣쪽뿉릩킧럂믲헕냡ꎬ캨폐뷰죚ퟔ평뮯샭싛뫍탂탋쫐뎡맺볒뗄뺭퇩ꎬ뿉틔횸떼컒쏇듸폐ꆰ쏾ퟅ쪯춷맽뫓ꆱ탔훊뗄뷰죚뾪럅뷸돌ꆣ 뛾ꆢ뷰죚뾪럅뗄듎탲폫붥뷸탔뗄샭싛횤쏷 튻냣뛸퇔ꎬ톸쯙뗄뷰죚뾪럅뿉틔뿋럾맟탔ꎬ춨맽쿷죵볈폐벯췅뗄샻틦뫍헾뢮뛔웳튵뺭펪믮뚯뗄뿘훆ꎬ캪룼맣랺뗄뺭볃룄룯쳡릩듌벤,췆뚯헻쳥룄룯뗄뷸돌ꎬ늢쟒뿉틔퓶볓뛔헾뢮맡뎹룄룯돐억뗄뿉탅뛈ꎬ폐훺폚췢늿풴뗄쇷뚯뫍틆ꎬ듙뷸춶ꆢ쎳틗죚뫍닺튵랢햹뗄풴릩룸폫폅뮯엤훃ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ죧맻쳵볾늻췪좫뻟놸ꎬ폫짏쫶쒿뇪쿠뗄쫇ꎬ톸쯙뗄뷰죚뾪럅붫틾몬ퟅ튻맺뺭볃늻뗃늻돐쫜뿉쓜랢짺뗄뺭볃폫뷰죚캣믺ꆣ뾨쏷쮹믹뫍삳틲맾쳘ꎨ [1]and ,1998ꎩ퓋폃맺쓚탅듻/GDPꆢ헦쪵믣싊뗈15룶횸뇪ꎬ뛔삭쏀뫍퇇훞뗄뷰죚
캣믺뷸탐쇋뇈뷏퇐뺿ꆣ쯻쏇뗄뷡싛쫇ꎬ늻춬뗘쟸ꎨ삭쏀ꆢ퇇훞ꎩ뗄뷰죚캣믺뗄닮틬헽퓚쿻쪧ꎬ룷뗘쟸뗄뷰죚캣믺뻹웰틲폚놾뗄맺볊쇷뚯ꎻ뛸삭쏀캣믺퓧폚퇇훞캣믺뗄튻룶뫏샭뷢쫍쫇ꎬ퓚20쫀볍헻룶80쓪듺뫍90쓪듺돵ꎬ쇷죫삭쏀맺볒뗄훷튪쫇뛌웚놾ꎬ춬웚쇷죫퇇훞맺볒뗄훷튪쫇횱뷓춶ꎬ떫쫇훁1996쓪ꎬ뫳헟늻탒뗘쿲잰헟ꆰ뾴웫ꆱ쇋ꆣ 뷰죚뾪럅폫뷰죚캣믺쫂쪵짏뗄싟벭솪쾵ꎬ틽웰쇋뎫떼뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄랢햹뺭볃톧볒쏇뗄랴[2]쮼ꎨ돂횾룕ꎬ1999ꎩꎬ쯻쏇퓚횸돶뷰죚ퟔ평뮯훘튪탔뗄춬쪱ꎬ룼잿뗷뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄듎탲폫붥뷸탔ꆣ퓚퇐뺿맺볊놾쇷뚯폫랢햹훐맺볒뺭볃ퟔ평뮯맘쾵뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ싳뷰얩ꎨ싳뷰얩ꎬ1999ꎩ[3]횸돶ꎬꆰ캪쪵쿖럇춨믵엲헍뗄뷰죚뻹뫢ꎬ닆헾ꆢ믵뇒폫췢믣헾닟뗄업쇐쮳탲훁맘훘튪ꆣ헾뢮늻쓜믲탭튲늻펦룃춬쪱닉좡좫늿뗄ퟔ평뮯듫쪩ꎻ쿠랴ꎬ뺭볃뗄ퟔ평뮯폐튻룶ퟮ병뗄쮳탲ꆣꆱ룹뻝쯻뗄룅삨ꎬ듓튻룶톹훆맺쓚췢쎳틗뗄훐퇫벯좨뮯뺭볃맽뛉떽튻룶췪좫쫐뎡뮯뺭볃뗄뷰죚헾닟뗄ퟮ병쮳탲펦룃쫇ꎺ닆헾뗷헻펦돶쿖폚뷰죚늿쏅ퟔ평뮯횮잰ꎬ뛸뷢돽뛔놾쇷뚯뗄맜훆펦퓚맺쓚뷰죚쳥쾵ퟔ평뮯횮뫳뷸탐ꆣ평짏쫶ꆰퟮ병쮳탲ꆱ틽짪뗄뷰죚뾪럅헾닟떼쿲냼삨ꎺꎨ1ꎩ닆헾욽뫢폫뫪맛뺭볃컈뚨쫇뷰죚뾪럅뗄쿈뻶쳵볾ꎻꎨ2ꎩ맺쓚뷰죚쳥쾵ퟔ평뮯쫇뷰죚뾪럅뗄믹[4]놾잰쳡ꆣ몺즭ꎨꎬ1994ꎩ튲횸돶ꎬ컈뚨뗄뫪맛뺭볃뫍쿠떱돌뛈뗄맺쓚뷰죚쳥훆뗄ퟔ평뮯쫇맺볊뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄믹뒡ꆣ 1ꆢ닆헾욽뫢ꆢ뫪맛뺭볃컈뚨폫뷰죚뾪럅 퓚뷰죚뾪럅뗄맽돌훐ꎬ랢햹훐맺볒뗄닆헾뇘탫힢훘뾪풴뷚쇷ꎬ쪵쿖욽뫢퓶뎤ꆣ뿋슳룱싼ꎨ,1979ꎩ죏캪ꎬ퓚랢햹훐맺볒ꎬ닆헾돠ퟖ쫆뇘틀삵믵뇒퓶랢살죚ꎬ늢평듋탎돉놾뇒붫믡뇡횵뗄풤웚ꆣ퓚만뚨믣싊훆뛈쿂ꎬ믹폚놾뇒뇡횵뗄풤웚뫍믣싊럧쿕뗄뾼싇ꎬ돠ퟖ죚쫜떽릫훚닺톡퓱ꎨ싴돶놾뇒닺ꎬ싲뷸췢뇒닺ꎩ뗄풼쫸ꎬ벴돠ퟖ죚퓶랢뗄뎬믵뇒탨쟳뮯캪뛔헾뢮췢믣뒢놸뗄릺싲ꆣ틲듋ꎬ늻맜췢믣뒢놸뗄돵쪼솿죧뫎ꎬ횻튪듦퓚돖탸뗄닆헾돠ퟖ죚ꎬ췢믣뒢놸훕붫쿻뫄듹뺡ꆣ쯦횮뛸훁뗄쫇ꎬ만뚨믣싊훆뛈뗄뇀삣폫믵뇒캣믺ꆣ뷸튻늽뛸퇔ꎬ퓚뷰죚뾪럅뗄놳뺰쿂ꎬ짏쫶닆헾돠ퟖ폫믵뇒캣믺뗄싟벭솪쾵살뗃룼캪톸쏍ꎬ틲캪퓚틽랢믵뇒캣믺뗄맽돌훐ꎬ쓑틔뛴훆뗄놾췢쇷뫍맺볊폎뗄춶믺탐캪붫웰떽췆늨훺삽뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ 싳뷰얩퓋폃탅쾢뺭볃톧샭싛뗄럖컶뿲볜ꎬ싛횤쇋ퟷ캪뷰죚뾪럅쿈뻶쳵볾뗄뫪맛뺭볃컈뚨뗄훘튪탔ꆣ쯻죏캪ꎬ쫗쿈ꎬ죧맻뫪맛뺭볃늻컈뚨ꎨ죧럇풤웚뗄춨믵엲헍믲뷴쯵ꆢ쪵볊믣싊뗄늨뚯뗈ꎩꎬ붫삩듳웳튵춶뗄풤웚쫕틦뗄늨뚯ꎨ쫕틦랽닮퓶듳ꎩꎬ늢퓶잿룷샠럧쿕뗈벶뗄웳튵춶풤웚쫕틦뗄헽쿠맘탔ꎨ쫕틦뗄킭랽닮캪헽ꎩꆣ퓚헢훖쟩탎쿂ꎬ쿲웳튵춶뷸탐죚뗄틸탐늻쓜춨맽ꆰ듳쫽뚨싉ꆱ살럖즢럧쿕ꎻ듋췢ꎬퟷ캪럧쿕뗄늹뎥ꎬ쪵볊듻뿮샻싊붫짏짽ꆣ웤듎ꎬ퓚춶쿮쒿뗄럧쿕폫풤웚쫕틦랽쏦ꎬ웳튵폫틸탐횮볤쯹펵폐뗄탅쾢쫇늻뛔돆뗄ꎬ룟듻뿮샻싊닺짺쇋쓦쿲톡퓱탐캪뫍뗀뗂럧쿕컊쳢ꎬ볓듳쇋틸탐닺뗄럧쿕ꆣ퓙듎ꎬ퓚랢햹훐맺볒ꎬ헾뢮뛔틸탐웆닺뗄쿔탔믲틾탔떣놣ꎬ뷸튻늽맄샸쇋틸탐틔럇헽뎣뗄룟샻싊쿲룟럧쿕뗄춶쿮쒿랢럅듻뿮ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ떱틸탐뗄늻솼닺믽샛떽튻뚨돌뛈쪱ꎬ틸탐캣믺뻍놬랢쇋ꆣ쳘뇰탨튪횸돶뗄쫇ꎬ퓚뷰죚뾪럅뗄놳뺰쿂ꎬ맺볊놾쇷죫늢뷸죫틸탐쾵춳ꎬ믡듳듳쯵뛌늻솼닺믽샛맽돌ꎬ뛸맺볊놾쇷돶퓲믡볓쯙틸탐캣믺뗄떽살ꆣ 뷰죚뾪럅뇘탫틀췐폚컈뚨뗄닆헾폫뫪맛뺭볃뮷뺳ꎬ헢튻뗣뗃떽쇋듳솿뗄쪵횤횧돖ꆣ낮뗂[5]뮪ꎨ,1995ꎩ춨맽뛔1954쓪훁1975쓪랢짺뗄87듎믵뇒캣믺뗄퇐뺿ꎬ랢쿖쇋튻룶릲춬뗄쳘헷ꎺ폫헢킩캣믺쿠냩쯦뗄쫇ꎬ뻞뛮뗄닆헾돠ퟖ췹췹춨맽훐퇫틸탐뛔헾뢮뗄삩헅탔탅듻살쏖늹ꆣ룹뻝쯻뗄뷢쫍ꎬ죧맻떱닆헾폫뫪맛뺭볃뮷뺳늻컈뚨쪱췆탐뷰죚ퟔ평뮯ꎬ평폚뗀뗂럧쿕뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ웤뷡맻쫇럧쿕뗄늻뛏믽샛ꆣ춬퇹ꎬ퓚듋뮷뺳쿂뗄뷰죚맺볊뮯ꎬ퓲붫닺짺췢믣뒢놸뗄든죵탔ꎬ늢뿉쓜틽랢맺볊쫕횧캣믺ꆣ 2ꆢ맺쓚뷰죚쳥쾵ퟔ평뮯폫뷰죚뾪럅 퓚뷰죚뾪럅뗄맽돌훐ꎬ맺쓚틸탐튵뫍뷰죚뗷뿘붫쫜떽맺볊놾쇷뚯뗄뻞듳돥믷ꆣ죧맻맺쓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯룄룯늻떽캻ꎬ맺볊놾쇷뚯뗄돥믷믡폕랢뷰죚폫뺭볃캣믺ꆣ듓삭쏀햮컱캣믺떽 2
퇇훞뷰죚캣믺ꎬ벸뫵뚼퓚퇝쪾춬튻뎡쾷뻧ꎺ춬맺볊놾뗄뻞솿쇷죫뫍쇷돶쿠냩쯦뗄쫇ꎬ헢킩뷰죚뾪럅맺볒돶쿖쇋ꆰ웰쿈탩볙랱죙ꎬퟮ훕뎹뗗쪧냜ꆱ뗄솽뷗뛎뛱탔톭뮷ꆣ맺볊놾쇷뚯뗄뻞럹늨뚯ꎬ퇏훘뗘듬냜쇋헢킩맺볒뗄뺭볃랢햹ꆣ룹뻝싳뷰얩뗄ꆰ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯듎탲ꆱ샭싛ꎬ웤훐뗄훘튪풭틲쫇,퓚맺쓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯짐캴믹놾췪돉뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ짏쫶맺볒뾪쪼췆탐뷰죚맺볊뮯ꆣ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯폫뷰죚맺볊뮯횮볤폐튻룶듎탲컊쳢ꎬ뷰죚뾪럅펦룃솢ퟣ폚맺쓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯룄룯ꆣ 웤튻ꎬ퓚맺쓚캢맛뷰죚ퟔ평뮯룄룯늻떽캻뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뷰죚뾪럅뗄쒳킩쳘뗣믡떼훂틸탐튵뗄캣믺ꎺꎨ1ꎩ춻좻뗄뷰죚뾪럅볈쎻폐룸쮽펪뷰죚믺릹쳡릩ퟣ릻뗄쪱볤살룄뷸쓚늿볠뚽ꆢ탅듻짳엺뫍럧쿕맜샭듫쪩ꎬ튲쎻폐룸릫펪틸탐ퟣ릻쪱볤붨솢웰룼볓쫐뎡뮯뗄돌탲ꆣꎨ2ꎩ잿쇒뗄놾쇷죫믡펰쿬탅듻뗄엺ힼ돌탲ꎬ퓙볓짏폐킧럖엤풴쯹뇘탨뗄탅쾢쾵춳ꆪꆪ믡볆ꆢ닆컱엻슶맦퓲ꆢ릫쮾럖컶ꆢ탅폃쳥쾵뗈ꆪꆪ짐쎻폐뾪랢ꎬ틔벰좱랦쿠펦뗄듻뿮럖샠ꆢힼ놸뷰뫍샻쾢놾뮯맦랶ꎬ떼훂풽살풽뛠뗄듻뿮춶쿲룟럧쿕뗄쿮쒿틔벰맘솪쪵쳥ꎬ탎돉쇋듳솿뗄늻솼듻뿮ꆣꎨ3ꎩ헾뢮믲쏷믲낵뗘쪵탐떣놣ꎬ쪹듦뿮헟뛔틸탐뗄탅폃럧쿕쒮늻맘탄ꎬ늻뗖햮뗄틸탐죔좻뿉틔춨맽컼쫕듦뿮횧뢶샻쾢뫍뫬샻뗄랽쪽틾님웤헦쪵뗄닆컱ힴ뿶ꆣꎨ4ꎩ죧맻럇뷰죚릫쮾뗄닆컱룜룋뷏룟ꎬ횼퓚듙뷸맺볊놾쇷죫믲ퟨ횹맺볊놾쇷돶뗄쪵볊샻싊뗄듳럹뛈짏짽ꎬ믡뷸튻늽뛱뮯듋샠릫쮾뗄뎥햮쓜솦벰틸탐뗄닆컱ힴ뿶ꎬ뷸뛸틽랢틸탐튵뗄캣믺ꆣ .삳쳘뫍V.즣듯삭퓞ꎨ. Leite & ,1992ꎩ죏캪, 든죵뫍뗍킧싊뗄틸탐쳥쾵좱짙펦뢶맺볊놾컞맦싉쇷뚯뫍췢믣쫐뎡톹솦뗄쓜솦ꎬ룼죝틗틲쫜떽뒫좾뛸뒫능뫍럅듳듓웤쯻맺볒뒫죫뗄뷰죚캣믺뗄펰쿬ꆣ헢훖죏쪶잿뗷ꎬ랢햹훐맺볒퓚뷰죚뾪럅횮잰쏦쇙틸탐훘ퟩꆢ쫐뎡뮯퓋ퟷ폫짳짷볠맜뗄뷴웈죎컱ꆣ틸탐훘ퟩ짦벰릫쮾훘ퟩ뫍풤쯣틆ꎬ뿉쓜탨튪뷏듳맦쒣뗄닆헾룄룯살폨틔횧돖ꎻ쫐뎡뮯퓋ퟷ냼삨럖늽훨췆뷸샻싊쫐뎡뮯룄룯뫍쿠맘뗄탅쾢쾵춳뗄붨짨ꎻ짳짷볠맜짦벰럖늽쪵쪩놾돤ퟣ싊ꆢ듻뿮럖샠ꆢ듴헊ힼ놸뇪ힼ뫍짨솢풤뺯믺훆ꎬ틔벰붨솢냼삨럇쿖뎡럖컶ꆢ쿖뎡볬닩ꆢ췢늿짳볆뗈퓚쓚뗄욽뫢볠맜쳥쾵ꆣ볠맜쳵샽쓚죝쫇럱돤럖쫇훘튪뗄ꎬ쳵샽뗄돤럖횴탐쓜솦튲춬퇹훘튪ꆣ헢훖쓜솦늿럖쫇벼쫵짏뗄ꎬ떫튲튪쟳튻뚨돌뛈뗄헾뢮룉풤ꎨ볓잿훐퇫틸탐뗄횰쓜ꎩꆣ듋췢ꎬ뮹튪쟳춬쪱뷸탐틸탐쳥쾵뗄쫐뎡뮯룄룯ꎬ늢듙뷸놾쫐뎡뗄랢햹뫍맦랶뮯ꎬ붵뗍럇뷰죚릫쮾뗄햮컱폫막놾뗄뇈샽ꆣ 웤뛾ꎬ퓚맺쓚뫪맛뷰죚쫐뎡뮯짐캴췪돉뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뷰죚뾪럅뗄쒳킩쳘뗣믡퓬돉뷰죚캣믺ꆣ헢뇭쿖퓚ꎺꎨ1ꎩ퓚맺볊놾룟뛈쇷뚯뗄놳뺰쿂ꎬ횼퓚뛔틸탐돉놾짏짽뷸탐뿘훆뗄횱뷓뷰죚뗷뿘릤뻟ꆪꆪ컞쾢뗄듦뿮ힼ놸뷰ꆢ탅듻폫샻싊짏쿞뿘훆ꆪꆪ뿉쓜믡틲놾쿮쒿뗄ꆰ췑쎽ꆱ뛸쟡틗뮯뷢ꎬ듓뛸듳듳쿷죵쯼쪵쿖헾닟쒿뇪뗄킧맻ꆣ퓚틔릫뾪쫐뎡튵컱ꆢ퓙쳹쿖캪훷쳥뗄볤뷓뷰죚뗷뿘쳥쾵쎻폐췪좫붨솢웰살뗄잰쳡쿂ꎬ랢햹훐맺볒춻좻쪵탐뷰죚뾪럅ꎬ믡퓬돉믵뇒헾닟뗄뗍킧싊ꎬ짵훁떼훂뷰죚쪧뿘ꆣꎨ2ꎩ뷰죚뾪럅횮뫳ꎬ맺볊놾뗄ퟔ평쇷뚯췹췹룸튻맺듸살듳솿뗄놾쇷죫ꎨ튲뿉쓜쫇쇷돶ꎬ헢샯횻쳖싛쇷죫뗄쟩뿶ꎩꎬ쪹튻맺믵뇒쏦쇙짽횵톹솦ꆣ캪컼쓉헢킩쇷죫놾뫍컈뚨믣싊ꎬ훐퇫틸탐늻뗃늻뷸탐뛔돥닙ퟷꎬ평듋퓚퓶볓믵뇒헾닟닙ퟷ쓑뛈뗄춬쪱ꎬ퇏훘쯰몦쇋믵뇒헾닟뗄뛀솢탔ꆣꎨ3ꎩ퓚뷰죚뾪럅뗄뮷뺳쿂ꎬ맺볊뷰죚쫐뎡뗄닎폫헟뫍춶믺헟ꎬ뿉틔뛠쟾뗀ꆢ듳맦쒣돥믷튻맺믣싊ꎬ짵훁쫔춼닙ퟝ믣싊ꎬ듓뛸쿞훆튻맺훆뚨폫쪵쪩믣싊헾닟뗄쓜솦ꆣ룼폐짵헟ꎬ죧맻퓚만뚨믣싊훆뛈뗄뿲볜쿂퓊탭맺볊놾ퟔ평쇷뚯ꎬ춬쪱폖돖탸듦퓚맺볊쫕횧쓦닮ꎬ룹뻝뢥삳쏷ꆪ쏉듺뛻쒣탍ꎬ튻맺뇘좻믡랢짺믵뇒캣믺ꎬ쓋훁뷰죚캣믺ꆣ 맺볊쫕횧쓦닮뗄돖탸듦퓚뇘좻뛔놾뇒퓬돉뇡횵톹솦ꎬ폚쫇ꎬ췢맺춶헟닺짺뛔놾뇒뇡횵뗄풤웚ꎬ놾췢쳓뫍살ퟔ맺볊폎뗄춶믺탔릥믷쓑틔뇜쏢ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂ꎬ쪵탐만뚨믣싊훆뛈뗄맺볒횻폐솽훖톡퓱ꎺ튪쎴놾뇒뇡횵ꎬ튪쎴돶쫛췢믣뒢놸ꎬ틔쳡룟샻싊살캬뮤놾뇒ꆣꎨ1ꎩ놾뇒뇡횵틢캶ퟅ럅웺만뚨믣싊훆ꎬ풭폐뗄돖탸뚢힡쏀풪믣싊틔듙뷸돶뿚뗄ퟷ폃늻뢴 3
듦퓚ꎬ뛸쟒놾뇒뇡횵쯙뛈뗄늻좷뚨탔뮹볓듳쇋믵뇒캣믺뗄럧쿕ꆣꎨ2ꎩ뚯폃췢믣뒢놸뗄잰쳡쫇ꎬ튻맺뒢놸폐돤ퟣ뗄ꆢퟣ틔폫쓜릻샻폃쫽쪮ꆢ쫽냙놶룜룋죚뗄맺볊폎쿠뾹뫢ꎬ죎뫎맺볒튲늻뿉쓜ퟶ떽헢튻뗣ꎻ튻떩췢믣뒢놸뫄뺡ꎬ늻뷶놾뇒죔좻튪뇡횵ꎬ뛸쟒쯰쪧쇋듳솿뗄췢믣뒢놸ꆣ쳡룟샻싊쯤좻뿉틔틖훆놾췢쇷ꎬ떫쫇믡떼훂맺쓚뺭볃쮥췋ꎬ짵훁틽랢맺쓚뷰죚믺릹뗄솬쯸웆닺ꆣ 퓚뫪맛뷰죚쳥쾵든죵뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ랢햹훐맺볒펦떱퓚뷰죚뾪럅횮잰ꎬퟅ솦랢햹볤뷓믵뇒뿘훆뗄랽램ꎬ믽벫췆탐샻싊ퟔ평뮯틔벰뷏캪쇩믮뗄믣싊훆뛈낲업ꆣ춨맽볤뷓릤뻟쪵쿖샻싊뫍믣싊뗄쇩믮뗷뷚ꎬ뿉틔쿞훆맺볊놾뗄뛌웚춶믺탔쇷뚯ꎬ틲캪헢훖쇷뚯뗄잰쳡쫇ퟅ듦퓚닮뇰샻싊뫍늻춬뗄믣싊낲업ꆣ죧맻쳵볾잷뻟놸뻍닖듙뗘뾪럅놾쿮쒿ꎬ랢햹훐맺볒붫늻뿉뇜쏢뗘쏦쇙맺볊놾ퟔ평쇷뚯ꆢ믵뇒헾닟뛀솢탔뫍만뚨믣싊횮볤뗄죽쓑톡퓱컊쳢뫍잱퓚뗄뷰죚럧쿕ꆣ 죽ꆢ탂탋쫐뎡맺볒뗄뷰죚뾪럅폫뷰죚캣믺 뷰죚ퟔ평뮯룄룯ퟮ훘튪뗄쳵볾쫇ꎺ돉릦뗄뷰죚뾪럅뇘탫틀삵폚닆헾욽뫢ꆢ뫪맛뺭볃컈뚨ꎬ틔벰맺쓚뷰죚쳥쾵뗄ퟔ평뮯룄룯ꆣ죧맻듎탲늻떱믲횧돖늻ퟣꎬ뷰죚맺볊뮯붫쫇튻뎡퓖쓑ꆣ20쫀볍뫳웚ꎬ삭쏀ꆢ퇇훞탂탋쫐뎡맺볒뫍뗘쟸뗄뷰죚캣믺쮵쏷ꎺ퓚쳵볾늻돉쫬뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뷰죚뾪럅폫뷰죚캣믺횮볤듦퓚쓚퓚뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ퓚헢샯틔첩맺캪샽ꎬ쮵쏷탂탋쫐뎡맺볒뷰죚뾪럅폫뷰죚캣믺횮볤뇘좻뗄싟벭솪쾵ꆣ 1ꆢ첩맺뷰죚뾪럅뗄뷸돌 1985쓪ꎬ첩맺뗄뷰죚뾪럅헽쪽웴뚯ꆣ퓚듋횮잰ꎬퟷ캪뷰죚뾪럅뗄ힼ놸ꎬ첩맺쪵탐쇋튻쾵쇐뗄룄룯듫쪩ꎺ1972쓪냤늼뗄ꆶ뛔췢튵컱램ꆷ뫍1977쓪냤늼뗄ꆶ춶듙뷸램낸ꆷ럅뾪쇋뛔뷸뿚쳦듺탐튵훐뛔췢맺횱뷓춶뗄쿞훆ꎻ1984쓪첩뇡횵쇋%ꎬ닆헾쫕횧뾪쪼쏷쿔룄짆ꎬ쎳틗뫍릤튵헾닟쿲틔돶뿚캪떼쿲뗄퓶뎤햽싔싵돶쇋뻶뚨탔늽랥ꆣ퓚췆뷸뷰죚뾪럅랽쏦ꎬ첩맺폅쿈맄샸놾쇷죫ꎬ랽램쫇퓚랢햹뷰죚쫐뎡뗄춬쪱ꎬ쪵쪩쮰쫕뫍웤쯻훆뛈랽쏦뗄룄룯ꎻ뛸뛔놾쇷돶뗄맜훆퓲쫇훰늽럅뾪뗄ꎨ뻟쳥듫쪩볻뇭1ꎩꆣ 뇭1ꎺ첩맺뷰죚뾪럅뗄뷸돌 쪱 볤 뻟 쳥 듫 쪩 1985ꆪ1988 틽죫쇋튻킩잿뮯틸탐쳥쾵뗄듫쪩ꎬ냼삨볓잿짳짷탔뇪ힼ뫍췪짆쿖뎡폫럇쿖뎡 볠맜ꎻ 횼퓚듙뷸췢맺춶헟춶폚놾맺막욱쫐뎡ꎬ돉솢쇋12볒믹뷰릫쮾ꎻ럇뻓쏱퓋1989 폃췢맺뷰릺싲릲춬믹뷰붫쫜떽붵뗍쯹뗃쮰싊뗄맄샸ꆣ 1990 쪵탐뗚튻싖뗄췢믣맜훆럅쯉ꎬ뻓쏱듓쫚좨틸탐릺죫췢믣퓶훁5000쏀풪ꆣ 쪵탐뗚뛾싖뗄췢믣맜훆럅쯉ꎬ짌튵틸탐뿉틔엺ힼ폫맺볊쎳틗폐맘뗄쯹폐췢믣 붻틗짪쟫ꎬ뿉틔틔췢뇒탎쪽쿲럇뻓쏱랢럅늻뎬맽500췲쏀풪믲쿠떱쫽뛮뗄듻 뿮ꎻ 뷓쫜ꆶ맺볊믵뇒믹뷰ퟩ횯킭뚨ꆷ뗄뗚8쳵뿮ꎬ튲뻍쫇룷돉풱맺캴뺭믹뷰ퟩ횯1991 춬틢ꎬ늻뗃뛔맺볊뺭뎣탔붻틗뗄횧뢶뫍뷰틆쪵탐쿞훆ꎬ늻뗃쪵탐웧쫓탔 믵뇒낲업믲뛠훘믵뇒ퟷ램ꆣ 쪵탐뗚죽싖뗄췢믣맜훆럅쯉ꎬ뻓쏱놻퓊탭듓쫚좨틸탐릺죫죎튻쫽뛮뗄췢믣믵1992 뇒ꎬ좡쿻쇋췢뇒돶죫뺳뗄쿞훆ꎻ 췢맺춶헟뿉늻쫜죎뫎쿞훆략믘춶뷰ꆢ뎥뮹듻뿮뫍횧뢶샻쾢ꆣ 쪵탐뗚쯄싖뗄췢믣맜훆럅쯉ꎬ헾뢮믺릹ꆢ맺볒ퟩ횯ꆢ웳튵뿉틔춨맽쯻쏇뗄췢 뇒헋뮧뷸탐죎뫎닙ퟷꎻ 엺ힼ붨솢싼마맺볊틸탐듻뿮쫐뎡ꎨBIBFꎩꎬ룃샫낶뷰죚쫐뎡뿉틔뷓쫜살ퟔ폚맺1993ꆪ1994 췢ꆢ췢맺틸탐믲럇뻓쏱틔췢뇒탎쪽뗄듦뿮믲뷨뿮ꎬ평듋뷰죚뾪럅뗄돌뛈듳듳4
1995ꆪ1996 쳡룟ꎻ 좡쿻쇋닆컱릫쮾ꆢ탅폃짧뗄뷨뿮ꆢ듦뿮뫍럅뿮뗄샻싊짏쿞ꆣ BIBF뾪쪼퓋ퟷꎬ늢럅뿭쇋튻킩뿘훆BIBF뗄맦뚨ꆣ 돉솢쪡벶맺볊틸탐듻뿮쫐뎡ꎨPIBFꎩꎬ듋샠믺릹뿉틔듓맺췢죚랢럅첩폫췢 뇒듻뿮ꎻ 1997 헾뢮떱뻖볓잿쇋뛔틸탐듻뿮뗄쿞훆ꎬ냼삨뛔럇폅믝췢뇒듻뿮뗄쿞훆ꎬ늢쟒삩듳쇋탅듻볆뮮뗄랶캧ꎻ 캪뮺뷢막욱쫐뎡뗄볛룱쿂뗸ꎬ헾뢮떱뻖쳡릩쇋죽듎뷢뻈뷰ꎬ늢퓊탭횤좯릫쮾짪쟫듓쫂맣랺뗄횤좯튵컱ꆣ 믣싊쳥훆룄캪폐맜샭뗄뢡뚯훆ꎬ틔듋첩붫퓚튻룶늻릫뾪뗄랶캧쓚뷸탐뢡뚯맜샭ꎻ 첩맺틸탐튪쟳쯹폐뗄뷰죚믺릹쎿죕뗝붻럇뻓쏱췢믣붻틗 ꎨ냼삨쯹폐벴웚ꆢ풶웚뫍뮥뮻붻틗ꎩ틔벰듓럇뻓쏱릺싲햮컱릤뻟뗄놨룦ꎻ 틸탐샻싊듓%쳡룟떽%ꎻ 첩맺틸탐탻늼랢탐1000틚첩뗄쇣쾢햮좯ꎬ틔뷢뻈쿝죫캣믺뗄랿뗘닺릫쮾ꆣ쇏살풴ꎺ첩맺틸탐ꆶ쓪뛈놨룦ꆷ폐맘룷웚ꎻIMFꆶ췢믣낲업폫췢믣쿞훆쓪뛈놨룦ꆷ폐맘룷웚ꆣ 2ꆢ평뷰죚뾪럅쯹틽훂뗄뷰죚캣믺 1989훁1995쓪ꎬ첩맺듙뷸놾쇷죫뗄헾닟컼틽쇋듳솿췢뺻쇷죫ꎬ쫽뛮햼떽GDP뗄9ꆪ13%ꆣ퓚듋웚볤ꎬ놾쇷죫뗄릹돉튲퓚랢짺뇤뮯ꆣ돵웚틔횱뷓춶캪훷ꎬ떫쫇ꎬ쯦ퟅ싼마맺볊틸탐듻뿮쫐뎡ꎨBIBFꎩ뗄붨솢뫍맺쓚췢뷏듳뗄헽샻닮ꎬ뛌웚놾훐뺻쇷죫놾뗄뇈훘풽살풽듳ꎬ1995쓪뺻쇷죫놾ퟜ뛮듯떽60%ꆣ 뛌웚놾듳솿펿죫첩맺ꎬ쫇평틔쿂틲쯘뻶뚨뗄ꎺꎨ1ꎩ짌튵틸탐퓚뷰죚믺릹훐뻓횧엤뗘캻ꎬ뛸웤쯻뷰죚쫐뎡뗄랢햹좴럇뎣뮺싽ꎬ첩맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄듦솿뷶햼GDP뗄10%ퟳ폒ꆣꎨ2ꎩ놾쿮쒿맜샭뗄맦뚨뛔뛌웚놾좱랦잿폐솦뗄쿞훆ꎬ헢훖훆뛈짏뗄좱쿝ꎬ볤뷓뗘훺뎤쇋췢틔틸탐쾵춳뛌웚죚뗄탎쪽돶쿖ꆣꎨ3ꎩ헾뢮떣놣헢튻폐샻틲쯘늻쏷샊ꎨKrugman,1998ꎩꎬ쪹맺췢춶죋룼욫뫃폚춨맽틸탐쾵춳살죚춨뷰ꎬ틲캪쯻쏇죏캪헢퇹ퟶ뗄럧쿕튪킡ꆣꎨ4ꎩ램싉폫뷰죚믹뒡틀좻듦퓚늻좷뚨탔ꎬ좱짙랢듯뗄햮좯쫐뎡ꎬ쪹뗃좷뚨뎤웚햮컱뗄볛룱쪮럖삧쓑ꎬ뛸쟒볠닢떱뗘쟩뿶뇤뮯뗄돉놾쿠뛔뷏룟ꎬ헢킩틲쯘튲믡맄샸뺳췢듻뿮죋쟣쿲폚뛌웚뛸럇뎤웚춶ꆣ 뺻놾쇷죫늿럖틔맙랽췢햮뗄탎쪽뎥뮹ꎬ웤훐튻늿럖폖놻맺볊쫕횧뺭뎣훐뗄뺭뎣쿮쒿돠ퟖ쯹뗖쿻ꎬ뺭뎣쿮쒿돠ퟖ룟듯GDP뗄8%ꆣ쯤좻맺볊쫕횧ퟜ뗄ힴ뿶죔좻쫇펯폠ꎬ떫쫇맣틥믵뇒폫춨믵엲헍죔퓚퓶뎤ꎨ볻뇭2ꎩꆣ퓚쏦쇙쪵볊믣싊짽횵ꆢ놾쇷죫볓듳ꎬ틔벰돶뿚듳럹쿂붵뗄 뇭2ꎺ뷰죚뾪럅웚볤첩맺뗄훷튪쿠맘뫪맛뺭볃횸뇪 떥캻ꎺ%ꎬ냙췲쏀풪 쿮쒿 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921993 1994 1995 199쓪뛈 6 1 맺볊쫕횧104 713 943 2596 5030 3236 4618 30293907 4169 7159 2167 뺭뎣쿮쒿 -7./GDP 9 뷰죚쿮쒿 10./GDP 5 뺭뎣쿮쒿 -1573 247 -366 -165-249-728-7571-630-6364 -8085 -1355---4 8 1 3 4 2 뷰죚쿮쒿1538 -131 1062 3840 6599 9098 11759947510500 12167 21909---
횱뷓춶162 261 182 1081 1726 2303 1847 19661571 873 1182 ---뺻뛮 횤좯춶895 -29 346 530 1468 -38 -81 924 5455 2482 4081 ---뺻뛮 웤쯻춶481 -363 534 2228 3387 6833 9993 65843474 8812 16645---뺻뛮 M2/GDP 쓪춨믵엲 헍싊 1ꆢ맺볊쫕횧=뺭뎣쿮쒿+뷰죚쿮쒿+듭컳폫틅슩뺻뛮ꎻ 2ꆢ뷰죚쿮쒿=횱뷓춶뺻뛮+횤좯춶뺻뛮+웤쯻춶뺻뛮ꆣ 쫽뻝살풴ꎺIMFꆶ맺볊뷰죚춳볆ꆷ폐맘룷웚ꆣ 뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ1996쓪첩맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤뫍춶ힴ뿶뚼돊쿖뛱뮯ꆣ뻞뛮뗄뺭뎣쿮쒿돠ퟖꆢ룟샻싊뫍죕틦짏짽뗄춨믵엲헍쪹첩맺벫틗쫜떽췢늿돥믷늢틽랢쫐뎡쟩탷뗄뇤ꆣ퓚헢훖탎쫆쿂ꎬ뺳췢듻뿮죋쳡룟쇋뷨뿮샻싊ꎬ틔랴펳돶뷏룟뗄럧쿕쳹쮮ꎬ짵훁랢짺쇋듳맦쒣뗄놾췢쇷ꎬ쪹맺쓚뷨뿮죋뛌웚죚뗄햹웚폶떽싩랳ꎻ퓙볓짏맽뛠뗘춶폚랿뗘닺뫍막욱쫐뎡틔벰듴헋ힼ놸뷰늻ퟣ헢킩틲쯘뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ잱럼퓚첩맺뷰죚쳥쾵훐뗄컊쳢뾪쪼쿔쿖ꎬ듋쪱쪵탐캪복짙놾췢쇷뛸쳡룟샻싊뗄훆뛈낲업룼쫇쪹헻룶뷰죚쳥쾵ꆰ톩짏볓쮪ꆱꎨ쯤좻헾뢮뛔랿뗘닺ꆢ막욱쫐뎡돢뻞뷸탐뷢뻈ꎬ떫컞볃폚쫂ꎩꆣ1997쓪7퓂ꎬ첩맺뷰죚캣믺놬랢ꎬ첩놻엗쫛ꎬ췢믣듳솿쇷쪧ꎬ헾뢮떱뻖뾪쪼퓊탭첩믣싊뢡뚯ꎬ늢닉쓉쇋튻훖폐맜샭뗄뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈ꆣ 3ꆢ뷰죚뾪럅폫뷰죚캣믺뗄쓚퓚싟벭 퓚뷰죚뾪럅뗄뷸돌훐ꎬ첩맺뗄닆헾폫뫪맛뺭볃ힴ뿶쪼훕쿠떱컈뚨ꆣ퓚좫쏦쪵쪩뷰죚ퟔ평뮯폫뾪럅뗄1985쓪훁1996쓪볤ꎬ첩맺풤쯣램뛔쓪뛈닆헾뾪횧뷸탐쇋퇏룱뗄쿞훆ꎬ쪹웤횻쓜퓚짏튻쓪뛈뗄닆헾쫕죫뗄믹뒡짏킡럹짏퇯ꎬ폐킧뗘ퟨ횹쇋닆헾돠ퟖ돶쿖ꎻ믹폚쓪뛈닆헾쫕죫뗄톸쯙퓶뎤ꎬ짵훁돶쿖쇋2%훁3%뗄닆헾펯폠ꎻ웤볤ꎬ쪵볊GDP캬돖7%훁8%뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈ꎬ춨믵엲헍싊퓲놣돖퓚6%틔쿂ꎨ볻뇭3ꎩꆣ떫쫇ꎬ쯹폐헢킩횻쫇돉릦뗄뷰죚뾪럅뗄뇘튪럇돤럖쳵볾ꆣ내헕잰쏦뗄샭싛럖컶ꎬ죧맻퓚맺쓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯늻떽캻뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ쎳좻쪵쪩뷰죚뾪럅ꎬ퓚뛌퓝뗄탩볙랱죙횮뫳ꎬ쫇뷰죚캣믺듸살뗄뎹뗗쪧냜ꆣ늻탒뗄쫇ꎬ첩맺돉캪쇋짏쫶샭싛뗄튻룶뺭뗤샽횤ꎬ쓰퓬쇋튻쟺쓍죋톰캶뗄ꆰ뾪럅놯뻧ꆱꆣ 뇭3ꎺ1985-1996쓪첩맺닆헾폫뫪맛뺭볃ힴ뿶 떥캻ꎺ% 쿮쒿 쓪198198198198198199199199199199199199뛈 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 닆헾폠뛮 ꦨ /GDP 2 2 2 6
쪵볊GDP퓶뎤 싊 2 2 6 춨믵엲헍싊 쫽뻝살풴ꎺIMFꆶ맺볊뷰죚춳볆ꆷ폐맘룷웚ꆣ 웤튻ꎬ퓚캢맛믹뒡랽쏦ꎬ80쓪듺돵웚첩맺뗄탭뛠닆컱릫쮾랢짺쇋캣믺ꎬ캪듋1985쓪틽죫쇋튻킩잿뮯틸탐쳥쾵뗄듫쪩ꎬ냼삨볓잿짳짷탔뇪ힼ뫍췪짆쿖뎡뫍럇쿖뎡볠맜ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ뷰죚쳥쾵룹놾컊쳢늢쎻폐뗃떽뎹뗗뷢뻶ꎺꎨ1ꎩ뷰죚믺릹훐듦퓚룟뇈샽뗄늻솼닺ꎻꎨ2ꎩ웳튵뗄닺[6]뢺햮뇈샽맽룟ꎬBꆤ늮삼룱뫍Mꆤ룱쳘샕ꎨ and ,1990ꎩ냑헢킩랽쏦돆캪랢햹훐맺볒뷰죚든죵탔뗄튻훖뇭쿖ꎬ튲뻍쫇잱퓚뗄뷨뿮죋춶죫쿮쒿훐뗄춶쿠뛔뷏짙ꎬ평듋퓚뷨뿮죋폫틸탐횮볤닺짺쇋뫜듳뗄샻틦욫닮ꎬ뷸뛸떼훂퓚뷰죚탎쫆쿝죫삧뺳쪱돶쿖뗀뗂럧쿕컊쳢ꎻꎨ3ꎩ헾뢮뛔틸탐튵뗄틾탔떣놣ꎻꎨ4ꎩ틸탐쾵춳뗄슢뛏룱뻖ꎬ뇭쿖캪틲슢뛏퓬돉룟듯6%훁7%뗄듦듻샻닮ꆣ쿔좻ꎬ헢킩컊쳢뗄뷢뻶틀삵폚췆뷸뷰죚ퟔ평뮯룄룯ꎬ헢냼삨틔닆헾캪뫳뛜뗄틸탐튵훘ퟩꆢ놾쫐뎡ꎨ폈횸막욱쫐뎡ꎩ뗄랢햹ꆢ뷰죚믺릹뗄쫐뎡뮯퓋ퟷꆢ쿠맘탅쾢쾵춳뗄붨짨ꎬ뗈뗈ꆣ 퓚맺쓚뷰죚쳥쾵든죵벰웤쫐뎡뮯룄룯늻떽캻뗄놳뺰쿂ꎬ헾뢮뛔틸탐뗄틾탔떣놣ꆢ뷏뗍뗄맺볊뷰죚쫐뎡죚돉놾ꎬ틔벰뷏룟뗄맺쓚듦듻샻닮ꎬ퓬돉쇋퇏훘뗄ꆰ뗀뗂럧쿕ꆱꎬ벴맺쓚뷰죚믺릹뻙뷨뻞뛮췢햮ꎬ늢붫횮춶쿲폚룟럧쿕쿮쒿ꎻ폫듋춬쪱ꎬ맺쓚웳튵룟뢺햮싊ꎬ폖퓬돉쇋쯼쏇쿲틸탐룦듻뗄잿쇒벤샸뫍틔벰춶럧쿕뗄컞쯹맋벰뗄ꆰ뗀뗂럧쿕ꆱꆣ첩맺뗄뷰죚뾪럅컼틽쇋듳솿뗄췢맺뛌웚놾ꎬ웤훐듳늿럖쇷쿲쇋랿뗘닺ꆢ막욱쫐뎡ꎬ쿆웰쇋뻞듳뗄뺭볃엝쒭ꆣ떱첩맺맺쓚횤좯뫍랿뗘닺쫐뎡뗄엝쒭웆쏰횮뫳ꎬ맺췢춶헟틲뛔첩맺뺭볃뫍첩좱랦탅탄뛸듳뻙뎷췋ꎬ틲듳솿췢쇷죫뛸퇚룇뗄뻞뛮뺭뎣쿮쒿돠ퟖ컊쳢뇤뗃쪮럖퇏훘ꎬ폚쫇첩늻뗃늻듳럹뛈뇡횵ꆣ캪쇋뮺뷢뫍ퟨ횹놾췢쳓ꎬ헾뢮쳡룟쇋샻싊ꆣ웤뷡맻쫇ꎬ퓚뺭볃엝쒭웆쏰ꆢ첩뇡횵폫샻싊짏짽뗄릲춬ퟷ폃쿂ꎬ첩맺돶쿖쇋듳맦쒣뗄뷰죚믺릹뫍틸탐웆닺뗄럧뎱ꎬ퓙볓짏횧뢶캣믺뗄놬랢ꎬ훕폚떼훂쇋헻룶뷰죚폫뺭볃쳥쾵뗄뇀삣ꆣ 웤뛾ꎬ퓚뫪맛뗷뿘랽쏦ꎬ첩맺헾뢮뛔샻싊뫍탅듻뗄맜훆쫇훰늽좡쿻뗄ꆣ횱떽1992쓪ꎬ첩맺헾뢮닅럏횹쇋듦듻뿮샻싊짏쿞뗄맦뚨ꎬ럅쯉쇋뛔뷰죚믺릹뗄탅듻맜훆ꎬ췘햹쇋짌튵틸탐뗄튵컱랶캧ꎻ떫쫇ꎬ샻싊ꆢ릫뾪쫐뎡튵컱뗈볤뷓믵뇒뿘훆릤뻟뮹쫇늻쓜돤럖뗘랢믓ퟷ폃ꆣ퓚췢맺뛌웚놾듳솿뷸죫첩맺쪱ꎬ훐퇫틸탐퓲쿔뗃솦늻듓탄ꆣ캪쇋복죵췢쇷죫퓬돉뛔맺쓚쇷뚯탔뗄펰쿬ꎬ첩맺퇫탐놻웈닉좡쇋틔쿂듫쪩ꎺ퓶볓헾뢮퓚훐퇫틸탐뗄듦뿮ꎬ붵뗍헾뢮뗄뷰퓋폃ꎻ랢탐훐퇫틸탐햮좯ꎬ틔뮺뷢틲닆헾펯폠ꆢ헾뢮햮좯늻ퟣ뛸풼쫸릫뾪쫐뎡튵컱퓋ퟷ뗄ꆰ좼쎼횮벱ꆱꎻ퓶볓듦뿮ힼ놸뷰싊ꎻ복짙훐퇫틸탐뛔짌튵틸탐뗄퓙쳹쿖ꎻ쪹폃췢믣뗴웚ꎨ헢튻듫쪩뫳살쿔뗃풽살풽훘튪ꎬ돉쇋훷튪듫쪩ꎩꆣ떫쫇ꎬ믹폚ꆰ췑쎽ꆱ쿖쿳뗄듦퓚ꎬ짏쫶듫쪩쎻폐쪵쿖볈뚨뗄헾닟쒿뇪ꎬ첩맺뗄믹뒡믵뇒뫍맣틥믵뇒릩룸솿퓶뎤톸쏍ꆣ 퓚뷰죚뾪럅웚볤ꎬ첩맺럇뎣믽벫뗘쪵탐뚢힡쏀풪뗄만뚨믣싊훆뛈ꎬힷ쟳믣싊뗄룟뛈컈뚨ꎬ늢캪듋뢶돶쇋닒훘뗄듺볛ꎺꎨ1ꎩ뛔폚맺쓚뷰죚폫럇뷰죚믺릹살쮵ꎬ만뚨믣싊훆뛈믡닺짺튻훖컈뚨뗄믣싊붫뎤웚놣돖쿂좥뗄풤웚ꎬ듓뛸뛔믣싊럧쿕즥쪧쇋펦폐뗄뺯쳨탔ꎬ퓚뷨뿮쪱쎻폐닉좡뛔돥듫쪩ꎻꎨ2ꎩ뛔폚맺췢듻뿮죋살쮵ꎬ뿌냥뗄믣싊훆뛈퓚뾪쪼쪱믡퓬돉뛔믣싊컈뚨ꆢ룟쫕틦싊뗄튻훖뮳틉첬뛈ꎬ퓚쫐뎡쳵볾랢짺뇤뮯쪱ꎬ뻍믡랢짺놾쇷죫뗄듳맦쒣랴ꎻꎨ3ꎩ믣싊늻뿉뗷헻ꎬ퓚듳솿췢쇷죫쪱ꎬ럁낭쇋믵뇒헾닟뿘훆믵뇒뫍탅듻퓶뎤뗄ퟔ훷탔폫쇩믮탔ꎬ샻싊돉쇋놣돖맺쓚뺭볃컈뚨뗄훷튪릤뻟ꎬ늢평듋퓬돉쇋뎤웚쿠뛔뷏룟뗄맺쓚췢샻닮ꎻꎨ4ꎩ룼훘튪뗄쫇ꎬ룹뻝뢥삳쏷ꆪ쏉듺뛻쒣탍ꎬ퓚만뚨믣싊훆뛈뫍퓊탭맺볊놾ퟔ평쇷뚯뗄뿲볜쿂ꎬ돖탸뗄맺볊쫕횧쓦닮믡탎돉놾뇒뇡횵뗄풤웚ꎬ떼훂놾췢쳓뫍맺볊폎뗄춶믺탔릥믷ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂ꎬ쪵탐만뚨믣싊훆뗄맺볒횻폐죧쿂톡퓱ꎺ튪쎴놾뇒뇡횵ꎻ튪쎴돶쫛췢믣뒢놸ꎨ쫜훆폚튻맺췢믣뒢놸ퟜ솿ꎩꆢ쳡룟샻싊캬뮤놾뇒뇒횵ꆣ첩맺톡퓱쇋솽헟뗄ퟛ뫏ꎬ평듋놬랢쇋뷰죚폫뺭볃캣믺ꆣ 7
쯄ꆢ훐맺뷰죚뾪럅뗄쿖쪵쳵볾뫍슷뺶톡퓱 맺볊뷰죚톧볒뫍랢햹뺭볃톧볒쏇듓샭싛뫍뺭퇩뷇뛈싛횤쇋튻룶릲춬뗄맛뗣ꎺ돉릦뗄뷰죚뾪럅ꎬ뇘탫힢훘듎탲뗄톡퓱뫍붥뷸탔뗄낲업ꎬ뇘탫퓚닆헾ힴ뿶솼뫃폫뫪맛뺭볃컈뚨ꎬ틔벰맺쓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯믹놾췪돉뗄쳵볾쿂볓틔췆뷸ꆣ캪쇋듙뷸뷰죚쳥쾵킧싊폫맺볊뺺헹솦ꎬ틔벰뛔볓죫WTO뗄돐억ꎬ컒맺붫ퟟ짏뷰죚뾪럅뗄뗀슷ꆣ캪놣횤늻훘퇝ꆰ뾪럅놯뻧ꆱꎬ컒맺뗄뷰죚뾪럅펦룃솢ퟣ폚맺쓚뗄뺭볃ꆢ뷰죚믹뒡ꎬ늢쟒폐튻룶짦벰듎탲톡퓱폫붥뷸낲업뗄슷뺶톡퓱ꆣ 1ꆢ훐맺뷰죚뾪럅뗄쿖쪵쳵볾 컒맺닆헾폫뫪맛뺭볃ힴ뿶뗄믹놾쳘헷쫇ꎺꎨ1ꎩ쯤쫇죵닆헾ꎬ떫닆헾ힴ뿶솼뫃ꎬ풤쯣돠ퟖ햼GDP뗄뇈횵쪼훕놣돖퓚1%훁2%뗄뗍쮮욽짏ꎻꎨ2ꎩ맺쏱짺닺헟ퟜ횵믹놾놣돖퓚7%훁8%뗄컈뚨ꆢ뿬쯙퓶뎤ힴ첬ꎻꎨ3ꎩ퓚춨믵뷴쯵뗄뮷뺳쿂ꎬ컯볛놣돖컈뚨ꎬ짵훁돶쿖캢죵뗄뢺퓶뎤ꎻꎨ4ꎩ뛔췢쎳틗튻횱놣돖쮳닮ꎬ떫쫇믹폚쫀뷧뺭볃쮥췋뗄펰쿬ꎬ쮳닮뛮폐쿂붵뗄쟷쫆ꎺ평1998쓪뗄435틚쏀풪뗸훁2000쓪뗄241틚쏀풪, 2001쓪캪225틚쏀풪ꎬ2002쓪캪303틚쏀풪ꎻ컒맺뗄췢믣뒢놸2000쓪쒩듯떽1656틚쏀풪ꎬ2001쓪쒩캪2122틚쏀풪ꎬ2002쓪쒩캪2864틚쏀풪ꎬ췢믣뒢놸뇈뷏돤ퟣꆣ 퓚뷰죚랽쏦ꎬ컒맺뷰죚캢맛믹뒡뗄믹놾ힴ뿶쫇ꎺꎨ1ꎩퟷ캪뎤웚틔살쫐뎡ힼ죫쿞훆뗄뷡맻ꎬ맺폐짌튵틸탐퓚듦ꆢ듻뿮쫐뎡햼폐60%훁70%뗄럝뛮ꎬ헢훖슢뛏뗘캻떼훂쇋맺폐뛀틸탐뗄뗍킧싊ꎬ틔벰춨맽쓚늿룄룯듙뷸킧싊쳡룟뗄뚯솦늻ퟣꎻ웤뷡맻쫇ꎬ맺쓚틸탐튵듦퓚듳솿뗄뮵헋ꆢ듴헋ꎬ뷘횹2001쓪9퓂뗗ꎬ쯄듳맺폐뛀짌튵틸탐뗄늻솼듻뿮햼떽좫늿듻뿮뗄%,웤훐틑뺭탎돉뗄쯰쪧햼좫늿듻뿮뗄7%ꆣꎨ2ꎩ폫맺볊틸탐튵쿠뇈ꎬ컒맺틸탐튵뗄놾뷰늻ퟣ컊쳢퇏훘ꎬ듳뛠쫽틸탐뗄놾돤ퟣ싊쎻폐듯떽냍죻뛻킭틩맦뚨뗄8%뗄튪쟳ꎻ듋췢ꎬ맺쓚틸탐튵ꎨ폈웤쫇맺폐짌튵틸탐ꎩ웕뇩듦퓚맺폐닺좨뒦폚뻸뛔뿘훆뗘캻뗄컊쳢ꎬ헢훖닺좨뷡릹퇏훘ퟨ낭쇋헾웳럖뾪ꆢ짌튵틸탐쫐뎡뮯퓋ퟷ뗄쪵쿖ꆣꎨ3ꎩ2001쓪쒩뮦짮막욱쫐뎡ퟜ쫐횵캪43522틚풪ꎬ햼GDP뗄뇈훘듯떽%ꎬ쿠떱폚뗂맺ꆢ죕놾1997쓪뗄쮮욽ꎬ틑뺭뻟폐튻뚨뗄맦쒣ꎻ떫쫇ꎬ쫐뎡샭탔늻ퟣꎬ춶믺즫닊얨뫱ꎬ2001쓪막욱붻틗ퟜ뛮/욽뻹쫐횵캪88%ꎬ뛸퓚1989쓪죕놾엝쒭뺭볃룟럥쪱웚룃횸뇪횵튲뷶캪44%ꆣ 컒맺뷰죚뫪맛뗷뿘뗄믹놾쟩뿶쫇ꎺꎨ1ꎩ2001쓪잰6룶퓂ꎬ춨맽29듎릫뾪쫐뎡닙ퟷퟜ릲뺻믘쇽믹뒡믵뇒1832틚풪ꎬ릫뾪쫐뎡튵컱돉캪훐맺죋쏱틸탐뗷뿘믹뒡믵뇒뗄훷튪랽쪽ꎻ떫쫇ꎬ틲캪ퟱ톭놾쫐뎡폅쿈랢햹뗄쮼슷ꎬ믵뇒쫐뎡랢햹훍뫳훆풼쇋릫뾪쫐뎡튵컱뗄뗷뿘킧맻ꆣꎨ2ꎩ틔믵뇒쫐뎡샻싊캪샻싊쫐뎡뮯룄룯뗄춻웆뿚ꎬ컒맺틑뺭쪵쿖쇋춬튵닰뷨뫍맺햮샻싊뗄쫐뎡뮯ꎬ떫뛔샻싊쳥쾵훐훘튪뗄듦듻뿮쪵탐맜훆ꆣ헾뢮퓚훆뚨샻싊헾닟쪱뾼싇뗃룼뛠뗄쫇죧뫎춨맽샻싊룄뇤듦뿮죋ꆢ뷨뿮죋(훷튪쫇맺폐웳튵)뫍뷰죚훐뷩믺릹뗄쫕죫럖엤룱뻖ꎬ폈웤쫇뛔맺폐웳튵뷸탐헾닟쟣킱뫍럶돖ꎬ쯹틔샻싊쮮욽뫜쓑랴펳릫훚뛔캴살뗄풤웚뫍럧쿕쳹쮮ꎬ샻싊뷡릹튲틗폚얤쟺ꆣꎨ3ꎩ1991쓪훁1993쓪ꎬ퓚뾪쪼쪵탐떥튻믣싊훆틔뫳ꎬ훐맺믹놾짏닉좡쇋폐맜샭뗄뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈ꎬ1994쓪폐맜샭뗄뢡뚯믣싊훆뗃떽볓잿ꎻ췢믣쫐뎡뗄릩쟳쫇뻶뚨죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄훷튪틲쯘ꎬ떫쪵훊짏튲쫇튻훖만뚨믣싊훆뛈ꆣ퓚췢믣맜샭랽쏦ꎬ1994쓪뾪쪼쇋췢믣쳥훆뗄룄룯ꎬ쪵쿖쇋죋쏱뇒뺭뎣쿮쒿쿂뿉ퟔ평뛒뮻ꎬ떫놾쿮쒿뗄맜훆뫍퇏룱뗄췢믣짳엺훆뛈쿞훆쇋췢맺뛌웚놾뷸죫훐맺뷰죚쫐뎡ꆣ 듓짏쏦뗄럖컶뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ쒿잰컒맺뗄닆헾ꆢ뫪맛뺭볃ힴ뿶뷏뫃ꎬ횻쫇퓚뷰죚뾪럅뗄맽돌훐ꎬ쒳킩틲쯘ꎨ죧맺쓚틸탐늻솼닺컊쳢뗄뷢뻶ꆢ놾돤ퟣ싊뗄쳡짽ꎩ믡췆뚯닆헾횧돶짏짽ꎬ컒맺죵닆헾뗄룱뻖뿉쓜믡듦퓚닆헾늻욽뫢뗄틾뮼ꎬ늢펰쿬뫪맛뺭볃뗄컈뚨ꆣ폫횮탎돉뛔뇈뗄뷰죚랽쏦퓲쫇틸탐튵뗄슢뛏룱뻖ꆢ뗍킧싊ꆢ닺좨폫훎샭뷡릹좱쿝ꎬ횤좯쫐뎡랢햹늻맦랶ꎬ볤뷓뷰죚뗷뿘ퟷ폃뗄랢믓쫜떽믵뇒쫐뎡랢햹훍뫳뗄쿞훆ꎬ샻싊뗄럇쫐뎡뮯ꎬ뛔췢믣쫐뎡뗄룟뛈맜훆ꆣ쯹폐헢킩쳘헷뻹뇭쏷맺쓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯짐뒦폚웰늽뷗뛎ꎬ폫첩맺뷰죚뾪럅횮돵뗄맺쓚뷰 8
죚ퟔ평뮯돌뛈뷓뷼ꆣ 2ꆢ훐맺뷰죚뾪럅뗄슷뺶톡퓱 닆헾ꆢ뫪맛뺭볃컈뚨뫍맺쓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯쫇뷰죚뾪럅좡뗃돉릦뗄솽룶쿈뻶쳵볾ꆣ퓚맺쓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뮹늻떽캻ꎬ틔벰듦퓚튻뚨뗄닆헾폫뫪맛뺭볃컈뚨틾뮼뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ톸쯙뗄뷰죚맺볊뮯늻샻폚컒맺뗄뷰죚쳥쾵뫍뫪맛뺭볃뗄컈뚨ꎬ짵훁믡퓬돉뷰죚뫍뺭볃캣믺ꎬ첩맺뗄뷰죚캣믺뻍쫇잰뎵횮본ꆣ캪뇜쏢ꆰ뾪럅놯뻧ꆱ뫍듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤ꎬ컒맺뗄뷰죚뾪럅뇘탫내헕튻뚨뗄듎탲ꎬ늢틔붥뷸뗄랽쪽훰늽췆뷸ꎬ헽좷뗄슷뺶톡퓱쫇컒맺뷰죚뾪럅돉릦뗄룹놾놣횤ꆣ 뗚튻늽ꎬ붨솢췪짆뗄닆쮰훆뛈ꎬ탎돉잿닆헾뗄룱뻖 [7]헽죧싳뷰얩쯹잿뗷뗄ꎨ싳뷰얩ꎬ1999쓪ꎩꎬ뺡맜훐맺퓚맽좥뗄15쓪샯좡뗃쇋뻙쫀훵쒿뗄뺭볃퓶뎤ꎬ떫평폚쮰쫕컊쳢뮹쎻폐뷢뻶ꎬ뫪맛뺭볃뗄컈뚨죔좻쫇쪮럖든죵뗄ꆣ1994쓪컒맺뾪쪼쪵쪩럖쮰훆ꎬ뛔뺭볃퓶뎤폫뫪맛뺭볃컈뚨폐뫜듳뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃ꎬ떫폐킩랽쏦탨튪룄뷸ꎺꎨ1ꎩ잿뮯쮰쫕뗄룕탔뫍좨췾탔ꆣ좡쿻룷훖쮰췢쫕럑ꆢ쏻쒿랱뛠뗄믹뷰뫍싒첯싒엉뗄벯탐캪ꎬ쪵쪩ꆰ럑룄쮰ꆱꎬ좡쿻쓚췢웳튵횮볤쮰뢺닮틬뫍룷훖폅믝ꎬ춳튻쮰램ꎻꎨ2ꎩ삩듳쮰풴ꎬ늢볓잿헷맜솦뛈ꆣ룄뇤쒿잰훷튪쿲짌욷붻틗헷쮰뗄ힴ뿶ꎬ삩듳쮰쫕뗄뢲룇쏦ꎬ붫쮰풴쿲닺좨붻틗쫐뎡퇓짬ꎬ쪵쿖횤좯쫐뎡ꆢ웚믵쫐뎡ꆢ맺햮쫐뎡뫍췢믣쫐뎡뗄쮰쫕뗷뿘ꎬ붨솢쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒춨탐뗄닆닺쮰뫍짧믡놣헏쮰ꆣꎨ3ꎩ퓚닆헾횧돶랽쏦ꎬ퇏룱ퟱ톭솿죫캪돶뗄풭퓲ꎬ놣횤닆헾뗄쫕횧욽뫢뫍뫪맛뺭볃뗄컈뚨ꆣ 뗚뛾늽ꎬ훘릹맺폐짌튵틸탐훆뛈ꎬ맦랶랢햹맺쓚막욱쫐뎡 퓚췗짆뷢뻶맺폐짌튵틸탐뗄늻솼닺뫍램뚨놾뷰늻ퟣ컊쳢뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ내쿖듺틸탐훆뛈릹붨맺폐짌튵틸탐뗄닺좨훆뛈ꆣ맺폐짌튵틸탐뗄닺좨룄룯훁짙냼삨솽닣쓚죝ꎺ튻쫇럖샫쯹폐좨폫탐헾좨ꎬ쪵쿖헾웳ꆢ헾럖뾪ꎻ뛾쫇틽죫탂뗄쯹폐헟ꎬ뷢뻶닺좨훷쳥떥튻뗄컊쳢ꎬ쪵쿖닺좨훷쳥뗄뛠풪뮯ꆣ퓚닺좨훆뛈룄룯뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ붨솢맺폐짌튵틸탐붡좫뗄램죋훎샭뷡릹ꆣ닺좨훆뛈훘릹뫍훎샭뷡릹뗄붨솢ꎬ붫듓놾훊짏뷢뻶맺폐짌튵틸탐뗄럇짌튵뮯뺭펪컊쳢ꎻ떫쫇ꎬ짌튵틸탐뗄쫐뎡뮯뺭펪ꎬ쫇럱쓜헦헽쳡룟웤뺭펪킧틦뫍맺볊뺺헹솦ꎬ쫊펦뷰죚뾪럅뗄튪쟳ꎬ뮹튪뾴샻싊뗄쫐뎡뮯룄룯ꆢ듻뿮쫐뎡뗄탅쾢뮯붨짨뫍맺폐웳튵뗄웳튵뮯뺭펪쫇럱떽캻ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ퓚헾뢮췋돶뛔맺폐짌튵틸탐뗄횱뷓룉풤횮뫳ꎬ펦볓잿짳짷탔볠맜ꎬ쪵쪩듻뿮럖샠ꆢ듴헊ힼ놸뇪ힼ뫍풤뺯믺훆ꎬ늢붨솢웰럇쿖뎡럖컶ꆢ쿖뎡볬닩ꆢ췢늿짳볆뗈욽뫢볠맜쳥쾵ꆣ 컒맺뗄막욱쫐뎡폐뷏잿뗄ꆰ헾닟쫐ꆱꆢꆰ춶믺쫐ꆱ쳘헷ꆣ막욱쫐뎡뗄맦랶랢햹ꎬ튻튪놣횤헾닟뗄솬탸탔뫍춸쏷뛈ꎬ복짙헾뢮뛔쫐뎡뗄늻뇘튪뗄룉풤ꎻ뛾튪뷸튻늽췪짆릫쮾뫋ힼ훆ꎬ볓잿췆볶짌뫍훐뷩믺릹뗄퓰죎ꎬ놣횤짏쫐릫쮾뗄훊솿뫍맦랶퓋ퟷꎻ죽튪믽벫엠폽뫏룱뗄믺릹춶헟ꎬ퓚듳솦랢햹횤좯춶믹뷰뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ쳵볾돉쫬쪱뿉틔뾼싇죃놣쿕뷰ꆢ짧놣믹뷰죫쫐ꎬ퓚막욱쫐뎡훐틽떼헽좷뗄춶샭쓮뗄춬쪱ꎬ틖훆춶믺탐캪ꎻ쯄튪볓듳탅쾢엻슶뗄솦뛈뫍맦랶뮯ꎬ복짙막욱붻틗훐뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆컊쳢ꆣ막욱쫐뎡뗄맦랶랢햹폐샻폚쳡룟웳튵뗄놾쪵솦ꎬ붵뗍뷰죚쳥쾵뗄든죵탔ꎬ퓶잿놾쫐뎡뛔췢쇷죫뗄뾹돥믷솦ꆣ 뗚죽늽ꎬ훰늽췆탐샻싊쫐뎡뮯폫믣싊훆뛈룄룯ꎬ듙뷸볤뷓뷰죚뫪맛뗷뿘ퟷ폃뗄랢믓 1996쓪ꎬ춬튵닰뷨쫐뎡뫍맺햮쫐뎡샻싊믹놾쪵쿖쇋쫐뎡뮯ꎬ떫뛔샻싊쳥쾵훐훘튪뗄듦듻뿮샻싊쪵탐맜훆ꎬ늻샻폚맺쓚틸탐튵뗄맺볊뺺헹뫍컒맺뗄뷰죚뾪럅ꆣ튻냣살쮵ꎬ돉릦뗄샻싊[8]쫐뎡뮯폫틔쿂틲쯘폐맘ꎨLeite and Sundararajanꎬ1988ꎩꎺ튻룶쿠뛔컈뚨뗄뫪맛뺭볃뮷뺳ꎻ쫐뎡뮯횮잰ꎬ샻싊뷡릹늻듦퓚퇏훘뗄얤쟺ꎻ틸탐튵훐듦퓚돤럖뗄뺺헹ꎬ틸탐튵뗄닆컱ힴ뿶뷏뫃ꎻ폐믮풾뫍릦쓜췪짆뗄믵뇒쫐뎡뫍횧뢶쳥쾵ꎻ믵뇒헾닟릤뻟쓜릻쇩믮뫍폐킧뗘펰쿬틸탐돯뗄뇟볊돉놾ꎻ뻟폐돤럖폐솦뗄볠맜헾닟뫍릤뻟ꆣ퓚짏쫶쳵볾짐늻췪좫뻟놸뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ컒맺뗄샻싊쫐뎡뮯룄룯횻쓜닉좡붥뷸뗄랽쪽ꎬ퓚샻싊쫐뎡뮯붥뷸쪽룄룯뗄맽돌훐ꎬ믽벫췆뷸횼퓚쪵쿖헢킩쳵볾뗄엤쳗룄룯듫쪩ꆣ컒맺붥뷸쪽샻싊쫐뎡뮯룄룯뗄뿉탐쮼슷쫇ꎺ쫗쿈ꎬ룹뻝뫪맛뺭볃ힴ뿶뗷헻샻싊뷡릹ꎬ쪹횮훰붥쟷폚뫏샭ꎬ좡쿻폅믝듻뿮샻싊ꎬ볲뮯샻싊뗄욷훖ꆢ떵듎ꎬ 9
늢쪹룷훖샻싊횮볤놣돖뫏샭뗄맘쾵ꎻ웤듎ꎬ룹뻝엤쳗룄룯듫쪩뗄쪵쪩뷸뛈뫍킧맻ꎬ훰늽삩듳듦듻뿮샻싊뗄뢡뚯랶캧ꎬ늢놣횤듦듻뿮샻싊볤뗄뫏샭샻닮ꎻퟮ뫳ꎬ췪좫럅뾪샻싊ꎬ쪵쿖샻싊뗄쫐뎡뮯ꆣ샻싊쫐뎡뮯붫뛔죋쏱뇒믣싊닺짺돥믷ꎬ죧맻훐퇫틸탐볌탸쪵쪩쿖탐뗄쪵훊짏뗄만뚨믣싊훆뛈ꎬ쫆뇘쿝죫놻뚯ꎬ퓬돉듳맦쒣뗄췢쳗샻믮뚯ꎬ펰쿬맺쓚뷰죚쫐뎡뗄컈뚨ꎬ짵훁랢짺샠쯆폚첩맺뗄뷰죚캣믺ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ퓚샻싊쫐뎡뮯룄룯웴뚯뫳ꎬ펦룃훰늽삩듳죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄뢡뚯럹뛈ꎬ퓶잿믣싊훆뛈뗄떯탔ꎬ볓잿쫐뎡ퟔ랢뗷뷚뗄쓜솦ꆣ 틔릫뾪쫐뎡튵컱캪훷쳥뗄볤뷓뗷뿘ꎬ쫜훆폚믵뇒쫐뎡뗄훍뫳랢햹ꆣ듙뷸볤뷓뷰죚뫪맛뗷뿘ퟷ폃뗄랢믓ꎬ퓚폚믵뇒쫐뎡뗄랢햹ꎺ쫗쿈ꎬ튪럅뾪쫐뎡ힼ죫쿞훆ꎬ퓊탭웳쫂튵떥캻ꆢ룶죋뗈럇뷰죚믺릹뗄맣랺닎폫ꎬ쪹믵뇒쫐뎡뗄붻틗볛룱쓜랴펳헻룶짧믡뗄뷰릩쟳ힴ뿶ꎻ웤듎ꎬ튪붨솢믵뇒쫐뎡ퟶ쫐짌훆뛈ꎬ믮풾붻틗ꆢ놣횤붻틗볛룱뗄솬탸탔뫍늻쪧헦ꎬ틔쳡룟믵뇒쫐뎡뗄탅쾢랴펦폫뒫떼킧싊ꆣ 뗚쯄늽ꎬ럖뷗뛎ꆢ럖늽훨뗘럅뾪뛔췢틸탐뫍췢맺놾뷸죫맺쓚뷰죚쫐뎡뗄맜훆 캪복쟡뛔맺쓚틸탐튵뗄돥믷ꎬ퓚췢틸탐뷸죫컒맺쫐뎡쪱ꎬ뿉틔닎헕맺볊뺭퇩ꎬ뛔췢틸탐뗄튵컱뫍ퟩ횯뷸탐틔쿂쿞훆ꎺ튻쫇닎헕탂볓웂쒣쪽ꎬ뛔췢틸탐랢럅럖벶펪튵횴헕ꎬ뛔늻춬벶뇰횴헕뗄뷰죚믺릹맦뚨늻춬뗄죋쏱뇒튵컱랶캧ꆣ탂볓웂뛔췢틸탐릲랢럅컥샠횴헕ꎬ늢뛔쎿샠틸탐쪵쪩쫽솿쿞훆ꎬ뛔쎿샠틸탐뗄놾뇒튵컱랶캧뷸탐늻춬뗄쿞훆ꆣ뛾쫇닎헕냍컷쒣쪽ꎬ뛔췢뷰죚믺릹뗄믺릹짨훃뷸탐쿞훆ꆣ냍컷헾뢮맦뚨ꎬ쎿볒췢틸탐퓚쪡믡돇쫐횻쓜뾪짨솽룶펪튵췸뗣ꆣ죽쫇닎헕펢맺쒣쪽ꎬ뛔췢틸탐뗄듦뿮컼쫕뷸탐쿞훆ꆣ1984쓪펢맺튪쟳얷릲쳥췢뗄틸탐퓚펢맺뺳쓚컼쫕듦뿮쪱ꎬ뇘탫틔릫룦탎쪽짹쏷쎻폐뒢탮놣쿕ꎬ늢룦횮뿉쓜랢짺뗄믣싊럧쿕폫붻틗럧쿕ꎬ틔벰웤쯻쿪쾸탅쾢ꎬ헢쪵볊쫇튻훖웧쫓탔뺺헹쳵볾ꆣ쯄쫇닎헕죕놾쒣쪽ꎬ뛔췢틸탐뗄듻뿮뷸탐쿞훆ꆣ죕놾헾뢮뎤웚쿞훆췢틸탐랢럅탁뗏볓듻뿮ꎬ횱훁20쫀볍80쓪듺ꎬ췢틸탐뗄듻뿮솿뷶햼맺쓚듻뿮ퟜ솿뗄3%ퟳ폒ꆣ컥쫇닎헕볓쓃듳쒣쪽ꎬ뛔췢틸탐닺퓶뎤벰맦쒣뷸탐쿞훆ꆣ볓쓃듳퓚웤틸탐램훐맦뚨ꎬ쯹폐췢틸탐햼맺쓚틸탐뗄ퟜ닺늻쓜뎬맽8%ꎬퟜ닺쫽솿늻쓜뎬맽110틚볓풪ꆣ룹뻝컒맺뷰죚쫐뎡뗄쪵볊쟩뿶ꎬ퓚뿉쓜폫뇘튪뗄잰쳡쿂ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔폐톡퓱뗘뷨본틔짏ퟶ램ꎬ틔놣뮤뒦폚늻샻뺺헹뗘캻뗄맺쓚틸탐튵ꎬ캬뮤뷰죚낲좫ꆣ 믹폚횤좯쫐뎡뗄늻췪짆ꎬ컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄뛔췢뾪럅펦룃폐튻룶붥뷸탔뗄낲업ꆣ뻟쳥럖캪틔쿂죽룶뷗뛎ꎺ웤튻ꎬ볤뷓뾪럅횤좯쫐뎡뷗뛎ꆣ훷튪쫇춨맽훐췢뫏ꎬ짨솢뫏ퟷ믹뷰ꎬ틔벰틽죫뫏룱뗄췢맺춶믺릹ꎨQFIIꎩꎬ쪹횮닎폫춶맺쓚횤좯쫐뎡ꆣ캪뇜쏢듳솿춶믺탔맺볊폎쇷죫뛔맺쓚횤좯쫐뎡뗄돥믷ꎬ뛔췢맺믺릹춶헟뗄룱ꆢ췢쇷죫맦쒣ꆢ뷰춶쿲폫뇈샽ꆢ뷰믣돶뗈뷸탐퇏룱뗄쿞훆ꆣ웤뛾ꎬ폐쿞훆뗘횱뷓뾪럅횤좯쫐뎡뷗뛎ꆣ뺳췢춶헟뿉틔횱뷓릺싲맺쓚횤좯쫐뎡짏뗄횤좯ꎬ떫춶랶캧폫뇈샽볓틔쿞훆ꆣ퓚듋뷗뛎ꎬ컒맺뿉틔뷨본맺볊뺭퇩ꎬ뛔폚늻춬탐튵뗄짏쫐릫쮾ꎬ맦뚨췢뗄ퟮ듳춶뇈샽ꆣ웤죽ꎬ좫쏦뾪럅횤좯쫐뎡뷗뛎ꆣ뺳췢춶헟뿉틔ퟔ평뷸죫맺쓚횤좯쫐뎡ꎬ춶랶캧폫뇈샽늻쫜쿞훆ꆣ 뗚컥늽ꎬퟷ캪뷰죚뾪럅뗄ퟮ뫳튻늽ꎬ훰늽좡쿻뛔놾쇷돶뗄맜훆 퓚놾쇷돶맜훆럅뾪뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ캪쇋쿞훆뛌웚놾맽뛈쇷뚯뗄늻샻펰쿬ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뾼싇틔쿂맺볊춨폃뗄ퟷ램ꎬ쪵탐볤뷓쿞훆ꎺ튻쫇뛔뻓쏱뫍럇뻓쏱뗄듦뿮쪵쪩늻춬뗄듦뿮ힼ놸뷰ꎬ죧뛔1쓪웚쿞틔쿂뗄평럇뻓쏱돖폐뗄듦뿮ꎬ퓲쪵쪩뷏룟뗄듦뿮ힼ놸뷰ꎻ뛾쫇뛔틸탐뗄놾뇒뫍췢뇒듦뿮쪵쪩늻춬뗄ힼ놸뷰ꎬ듓뛸펰쿬틸탐뗄췢뇒죚돉놾ꎬ뷸뛸펰쿬놾쇷뚯ꎻ죽쫇뛔췢늿뷰죚붻틗헷쮰ꎬ튲뻍쫇뛔뻓쏱돖폐뗄몣췢뷰죚닺ꆢ럇뻓쏱돖폐뗄맺쓚뷰죚닺쫕틦헷쮰ꎻ쯄쫇뛔듓쫂뿧뺳놾헋뮧붻틗뗄틸탐ꎬ튪쟳쯼쏇틔쇣샻싊붫튻뚨뇈샽뗄췢뇒뺻춷듧틔놾뇒믲췢뇒탎쪽듦죫훐퇫틸탐ꆣ 뇘탫횸돶뗄쫇ꎬ짏쫶컥룶늽훨뗄슷뺶톡퓱늻쫇뇋듋룮쇑뗄ꎬ뛸쫇쿠뮥쿎뷓ꆢ쿠뮥붻닦뷸탐뗄ꎬ틲듋늻뿉틔ퟷ뻸뛔뮯뗄샭뷢ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ헢킩늽훨훐뗄뻟쳥쓚죝뗄쪵쪩뚼쫇틔튻뚨뗄 10
쳵볾캪틀뻝뗄ꎬ퓚쳵볾쎻폐췪좫뻟놸횮잰ꎬ헾닟쎳좻돶첨믲쳡잰쪵쪩뾪럅뚼뿉쓜닺짺늻샻뗄뫳맻ꎻ쿠랴ꎬ퓚뻟쳥쳵볾믹놾돉쫬횮뫳ꎬ헾닟쏦틀좻풭뗘첤늽믲볌탸쪵쪩맜훆ꎬ춬퇹폐믡폐퇏훘뗄뫳맻ꆣ듋췢ꎬ퓚쪵쪩맽돌훐ꎬ헢킩늽훨뗄뻟쳥쓚죝듳뚼폐튻룶ꆰ붥뷸ꆱ햹뾪뗄맽돌ꎬꆰ붥뷸ꆱ틢캶ퟅ쎿튻쿮뻟쳥쓚죝뚼쫇튻룶듭ퟛ뢴퓓ꆢ톭탲붥뷸뗄맽돌ꎬ쯹틔ꎬ볈늻쓜벱폚쟳돉ꎬ냎쏧훺뎤ꎬ튲늻뿉ퟸ틔듽쪱ꎬ컳솼믺ꆣ 닎뾼컄쿗 [1]Kaminsky . and Reinhart . Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and Now [J]. Asia Papers and Proceedings, May, 1998. [2]돂횾룕.컷랽톧헟맘폚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯샭싛뗄죴룉랴쮼[J]. 뺭볃톧뚯첬,1999,(9). [3]싞쓉뗂,싳뷰얩. 뺭볃쫐뎡뮯뗄듎탲ꆪꆪ쿲쫐뎡뺭볃맽뛉쪱웚뗄뷰죚뿘훆[M]. 짏몣ꎺ짏몣죽솪쫩뗪ꎬ1999ꆣ [4]Hanson, James. Opening the Capital Account: A Survey of Issues and Results[R] . World Bank Working Paper , 1992. [5]. Financial Deregulation and Segmented Capital Markets: The Case of Korea[R]. World Development 16(1), 1988. [6]. and Gertler,M. Financial Fragility and Economic Performance[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1990,(105). [7] 싞쓉뗂,싳뷰얩. 뺭볃쫐뎡뮯뗄듎탲ꆪꆪ쿲쫐뎡뺭볃맽뛉쪱웚뗄뷰죚뿘훆[M]. 짏몣ꎺ짏몣죽솪쫩뗪ꎬ1999ꆣ [8]Leite, V. Sundararajan. Issues in Interest Rate Management and Liberalization[R]. IMF Working Paper, April, 1988. [9]슽쫀쏴,듷맺잿. 2002쓪훐맺뷰죚랢햹놨룦[R]. 짏몣ꎺ짏몣닆뺭듳톧돶냦짧ꎬ2002ꆣ On the Order and Gradualism of Financial Opening in Developing Countries Zhigang Chen Abstract: From both theoretical and practical aspects, the author proves “the theory on the order of financial liberalization” by Ronald Mckinnon. That is to say that the developing countries must put stress on ordinal choices and gradualist arrangements when they put the financial opening into effect, and that they must push forward the financial opening under the conditions of the fiscal and macroeconomic stabilization as well as after the basic completion of domestic financial liberalization. According to the ordinal theory of financial liberalization, we conclude that the crux of the matter whether China will succeed or fail in financial opening hinges on her domestic economy, her financial foundations and her choice of path concerning the ordinal choice and the gradual arrangements. Keywords: financial opening; the order and gradualism; financial crisis ퟷ헟볲뷩ꎺ돂횾룕ꎬ뺭볃톧늩쪿ꎬ훐쓏쏱ퟥ듳톧뺭볃톧풺뢱뷌쫚ꆣ 11
