2005쓪10퓂t.,2005뗚19뻭뗚10웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뮪ꆡ뚫ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃ꆡ맜ꆡ샭EastChinaEconomꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ,듓췢믣뒢놸뷇뛈싛죋쏱뇒믣싊컊쳢닜ꆡ욼(뮪뚫샭릤듳톧ꆡ짌톧풺,짏몣ꆡ200237)[햪튪]컄헂럖컶쇋컒맺뗄췢믣뒢놸쟩뿶,늢듓췢믣뒢놸뗄뷇뛈럖컶쇋죋쏱뇒믣싊컊쳢,ퟮ뫳뛔듦퓚뗄컊쳢쳡돶쇋헾닟탔붨틩,뷼쓪살,쯦ퟅ훐맺췢믣뒢놸뗄돖탸룟쯙퓶뎤,죋쏱뇒믣싊컊쳢돉캪죈뗣컊쳢ꆣ[맘볼듊]췢믣뒢놸;죋쏱뇒믣싊[훐춼럖샠뫅]F406171ꆡꆡꆡ[컄쿗뇪쪶싫]Aꆡꆡꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]1007ꆪ5097(2005)10ꆪ0139ꆪ03DiscussingontheIssueofRMBExchangeRatebyViewingtheForeignReserveCAOPing(BusinessSchool,HuadongUniversityofTechnology,Shanghai200237,China)Abstract:WiththehighspeedgrowthofChinapisforeignreserveinrecentyears,,:foreignreserve;RMBexchangerateꆡꆡ튻ꆢ컒맺뗄췢믣뒢놸쟩뿶11컒맺췢믣뒢놸뗄뇤뚯쟷쫆21컒맺췢믣뒢놸뗄맦쒣놾컄퓚듋럖컶쇋1995-2004쓪췢믣뒢놸퓶볓뛮벰룹뻝쳘샯럒뗄뇈샽램ꆢ낢룱컖뛻뗄돉놾쫕틦램뫍퓶뎤싊뗄쟩뿶,죧뇭1쯹쪾ꆣ틲쯘럖컶램뚼뗃돶컒맺췢믣뒢놸맦쒣욫룟ꆣ뷶뷶룹뻝2004쓪컒맺췢믣뒢놸좫쓪퓶뎤쇋2066틚쏀풪헢벸룶횸뇪뫜쓑뛏퇔쒿잰컒맺뗄췢믣뒢놸뛮쫇럱맽뛠,,퓙뒴샺쪷탂룟ꆣ뷘훁2004쓪뗗,컒맺췢믣뒢놸캪6099튲뫜쓑볆쯣돶튻룶뷏뫏쫊뗄췢믣뒢놸솿ꆣ틚쏀풪룹뻝컒맺쳘폐맺쟩,뫢솿컒맺췢믣뒢놸쮮욽쫇럱,뷏횮1993쓪뗗뗄212틚쏀풪뷼28놶,뇈1996쓪뗗퇇훞뷰죚캣믺잰퓶볓쇋7놶ꆣ2005쓪3퓂뫏쫊폐죽듳뇪ힼ:쫇럱럻뫏룄룯뾪럅뗄탨튪;췢믣뒢쒩놸뗄뛠짙펦폫맺쓚췢뺭볃랢햹ힴ뿶쿠튻훂;컒맺뗄췢,컒맺췢믣뒢놸폠뛮듯떽6591틚쏀풪,춬뇈퓶뎤4919%,퓶쯙횮뿬믣뒢놸뇘탫튪캪컒맺뗄뺭볃랢햹럾컱ꆣ횻폐럻뫏헢죽,쪵쫴몱볻ꆣ컒맺췢믣뒢놸듦솿뇭듳뇪ힼ뗄췢믣뒢놸쮮욽닅쫇쫊뫏컒맺뗄ퟮ병쮮욽ꆣ틲ꆡꆡ뇭1(1995-2004)떥캻:틚쏀풪캪컒맺ퟷ캪돶뿚듳맺,폖쫇튻룶랢햹훐맺볒,뷏뛠뗄쓪럝췢믣뒢놸췢믣뒢놸퓶볓뛮퓶뎤싊(%췢믣뒢놸폖쫇컒맺뺭볃쪵솦뗄튻훖쿳헷,쫇튻맺뗖폹)럧쿕뗄탅탄닺,쯼폐샻폚놣횤맺볊쎳틗뗄컈뚨뷸1995735197ꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪ탐ꋙꆣ19961050129314132421711997139819034816133119떫쫇ퟔ1993떽2002쓪,컒맺췢믣뒢놸폫뷸뿚뛮1998144916050173162횮뇈,벴쳘샯럒횵믹놾짏뚼욫룟,쳘뇰쫇1995쓪횮19991546175971156170뫳,쳘샯럒횵뚼룟폚70%,벸뫵쫇25%뗄죽놶,뛸췢200016551741081997105믣뒢놸뛮튲풶풶뎬맽쇋3룶퓂뗄뷸뿚솿,벸뫵랭쇋죽2001212116546619128120랬,죧듋탼쫢뗄닮뻠뮹쫇첫뿤헅쇋튻뗣ꆣ맽뛠뗄췢믣2002286410774214234199늻뷶퓶쳭쇋죋쏱뇒뗄짽횵톹솦,뛸쟒뮹쳡룟쇋맜샭돉20034032151116814440179놾,뗃늻뎥쪧ꆣ20046099206614952125ꆡꆡ쇏살풴:룹뻝ꆶ2004훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ볆쯣헻샭뛸뗃[쫕룥죕웚]ꆡ2005ꆪ08ꆪ05[ퟷ헟볲뷩]ꆡ닜ꆡ욼(1982ꆪ),얮,쮶쪿,퇐뺿랽쿲:뷰죚톧ꆣꆪ139ꆪ
ꆡꆡ뛾ꆢ췢믣뒢놸뛔죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄펰쿬폫쏻틥믣싊뗄쿠맘쾵쫽캪-0194,춬웚죕놾뫍펢맺췢11쿖탐죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄탎돉믺훆믣뒢놸폫쏻틥믣싊쿠맘쾵쫽캪-0174뫍-0172ꆣ떫쿖쿖탐죋쏱뇒믣싊탎돉믺훆뗄쳘뗣쫇평웳튵뷡쫛믣ꆢ쪵훐,컒맺쪵탐폐맜샭뗄뢡뚯믣싊훆,훷튪쫇뚢힡쏀훐퇫틸탐췢믣춷듧쿞뛮맜샭뫍훐퇫틸탐췢믣쫐뎡룉풤풪,쯹틔쪵볊짏뿉쫓캪만뚨믣싊훆,췢믣뒢놸솿뗄쫽ퟩ돉뗄뛀쳘믣싊뻶뚨훆뛈ꆣ솿뇤뚯좡듺쇋믣싊늨뚯,벴춨맽퓶복췢믣뒢놸솿,쪹웳튵뷡쫛믣훆쫇뛔췢늿쏅뗄췢믣쫕죫돽쇋늿럖웳폃췢믣뷸돶맺볊뷰죚쫐뎡살뿘훆컈뚨믣싊,쯹틔솽뇤튵뿉틔내헕맦뚨퓚쿖믣헋뮧짏쇴듦튻늿럖틔췢,웤폠솿웤쪵쫇튻룶ꆣ뻟쳥뇭쿖캪믣싊좱랦뇤틬탔,늻쓜뫜늿럖뇘탫내떱쳬뗄췢믣없볛싴룸췢믣횸뚨틸탐(벴뷡뫃랴펳웤폫컒맺췢믣뒢놸맦쒣뇤뚯횮볤뗄쿠맘탔ꆣ믣),웳튵떱쳬쯹탨뗄췢믣퓲욾쎳틗뫏춬벰쿠맘떥횤떽췢믣횸뚨틸탐내떱쳬뗄췢믣없볛릺싲(벴쫛믣)ꆣ뿉틔뾴돶,췢쎳웳튵퓚틸탐뗄뷡쫛믣뻟폐잿훆탔ꆣ춨맽붨솢좫맺춳튻뗄틸탐볤췢믣쫐뎡,쒿잰죋쏱뇒믣싊평틸탐볤췢믣쫐뎡릩쟳짺돉ꆣ떫틸탐볤췢믣쫐뎡뗄닎폫헟횻폐맺쓚췢췢믣횸뚨틸탐벰뺭맽췢믣맜샭뻖엺ힼ뗄늿럖럇틸탐뷸죫믺릹뫍늿럖췢틸탐,웤쫐뎡뗄뷸죫뻟폐퇏룱뗄쫐뎡ힼ죫풭퓲ꆣ훐퇫틸탐뛔췢믣춼1ꆡ췢믣뒢놸폫믣싊뇤뮯쟷쫆춼틸탐뗄뛮뛈뿘훆틔벰퇫탐엓듳뗄췢믣뒢놸뫍믵뇒릩룸쇏살풴:룹뻝ꆶ2004쓪훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ쫽뻝볆쯣뛸뗃좨,쪹뗃퇫탐뛔믣쫐훐믣싊뗄짺돉뻟폐뷏듳돌뛈뗄맜떱잰,맺쓚탭뛠뺭볃톧헟뚼퓚뛔죋쏱뇒짽횵톹솦훆좨,쿞훆쇋틸탐볤뗄쫐뎡짺돉믺훆,늻샻폚죋쏱뇒컊쳢햹뾪벤쇒쳖싛,폫듋춬쪱,훐맺뗄췢믣뒢놸맦쒣믣싊쫐뎡뮯뗄뷸돌ꆣ퓚늻뛏뒴탂룟ꆣ컒맺뗄폐맜샭뢡뚯훆뛈훂쪹췢믣뒢놸21췢믣뒢놸퓶뎤뛔믣싊뗄펰쿬맦쒣폫믣싊뇤뚯쎻폐솿뮯뗄몯쫽쿠맘맘쾵,떫믣싊좷듓샭싛짏쮵,췢믣뒢놸뛔믣싊쯹닺짺뗄펰쿬쫇뇈쪵뛔훐맺뗄췢믣뒢놸맦쒣닺짺쇋펰쿬ꆣ퓚폐맜샭뢡뚯뷏볲떥뫍횱맛뗄,벴튻맺췢믣뒢놸퓶볓,믡횧돖룃맺믣싊뗄뷰죚쳥훆쿂,컒맺붫죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄뇤뚯럹뛈쿞믣싊뗄짏뢡,놾뇒짽횵,랴횮놾뇒뇡횵ꆣ횵뗃힢틢뗄훆퓚튻룶쿁킡뗄랶캧쓚,튻떩믣싊늨뚯뎬맽듋랶캧,쫇,틔짏췆뛏쫇퓚볙짨웤쯻틲쯘뚼놣돖늻뇤뗄쟩뿶쿂퇫탐붫믡뷸탐룉풤ꆣ룉풤뗄쫖뛎횮튻뻍쫇뚯폃컒맺뗄(벴믣싊뇤뚯횻쫜췢믣뒢놸펰쿬)닅믡돉솢뗄ꆣ췢믣뒢놸퓚틸탐볤췢믣쫐뎡짏싲뷸믲싴돶죋쏱뇒틔듯ꆡꆡ뇭2췢믣뒢놸폫죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄쿠맘탔럖컶떽컈뚨뇒횵뗄쒿뗄ꆣ쒿잰,얷풪뛒쏀풪뗄믣싊돖탸ퟟ쓪럝췢믣뒢놸췢믣뒢놸죋쏱뇒/뇡횵럹뛈룟,룸죋쏱뇒짽횵듸살쇋뻞듳톹솦ꆣ뛸죋쏱뇒평폚웤(틚쏀풪)뇤뚯럹뛈쏀풪훐볤볛(%)뷼쯆폚만뚨믣싊뗄훆뛈,쪹뗃퇫탐놻웈퓚췢믣쫐뎡짏1990110193ꆪꆪꆪ478132ꆪꆪꆪ뷸탐룉풤,늻뛏싲죫쏀풪,틔뚢힡쏀풪믣싊,떼훂쇋199121711210611953213311129컒맺췢믣뒢놸뗄늻뛏퓶볓ꆣ춬쪱,쫐뎡짏죋쏱뇒짽횵1992194143221695511463159뗄톹솦쪹뗃듳솿맺볊죈잮펿죫,쇭췢,탭뛠돶뿚뚼쳡1993211199171565761204149잰뷡믣ꆢ뷸뿚퓲퇓동뢶믣,뷸돶뿚짌럗럗뺡솿쯵뛌쏀19945161230412186118749158풪뗄돖폐쪱볤틔붵뗍믣싊럧쿕,뗈뗈,헢킩뚼쫇떱잰1995735197219177835110-3120훐맺췢믣뒢놸맦쒣늻뛏엊짽뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ19961050149314152831142-01441997139819348141828198-0129죽ꆢ헾닟탔붨틩1998144915950169827191-0113볈좻컒맺뗄췢믣뒢놸퓶뎤죧듋횮뿬,쓇쎴죋쏱뇒19991546175971168271830믣싊펦룃쿠펦뗘짏짽닅뛔,떫컒맺ퟔ듓1994쓪믣싊늢200016551741081998271840맬틔살죋쏱뇒믣싊좴벸뫵쫇쎻폐뇤뚯맽ꆣ컒맺쪵탐폐200121211654651918271700맜샭뗄뢡뚯믣싊훆,훷튪쫇뚢힡쏀풪,쯹틔쪵볊짏뿉200228641077421428271700쫓캪만뚨믣싊훆,췢믣뒢놸솿뗄쫽솿뇤뚯좡듺쇋믣싊2003403215111671448271700늨뚯,벴춨맽퓶복췢믣뒢놸솿,쪹폃췢믣뷸돶맺볊뷰2004609920661498271700죚쫐뎡살뿘훆컈뚨믣싊,쯹틔솽뇤솿웤쪵쫇튻룶ꆣ뻟듓뇭쳥뇭쿖캪믣싊좱랦뇤틬탔,늻쓜뫜뫃랴펳웤폫컒맺췢2뫍춼1뿉횪,췢믣뒢놸솿폫죋쏱뇒믣싊폐ퟅ쿠맘탔믣뒢놸맦쒣뇤뚯횮볤뗄쿠맘탔ꆣ퓚듋쳡돶틔쿂붨틩:,췢믣뒢놸돖탸퓶볓듙쪹놾뇒믣싊짏짽,퓶잿쇋놾뇒뗄맺볊뗘캻ꆣ11믽벫췪짆쿖탐췢믣쫐뎡퓚헽뎣뗄쫐뎡쳵볾쿂쒿잰컒맺헾뢮퓚놾쿮쒿짏뗄럇뻹뫢맜훆쫇떼훂,놾맺췢믣뒢놸뗄퓶뎤뇘좻냩쯦ퟅ놾뇒뗄훰늽짽횵ꆣ뗂맺컒맺맺볊쫕횧뷡릹얤쟺,틔벰췢믣뒢놸듳맦쒣퓶뎤뗄1957ꆪ2001쓪췢믣뒢놸ꆪ140ꆪ
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