훐맺죋쏱듳톧톧놨2005쓪뗚4웚ꆡ2005믽벫닆헾헾닟뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤킧펦맹쟬췺,볖뾡톩(훐맺죋쏱듳톧훐맺닆헾뷰죚헾닟퇐뺿훐탄,놱뺩100872)ꆡꆡ[햪ꆡ튪]ꆡ샻폃쪱뇤닎쫽쒣탍뫍쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍,뿉틔뛔믽벫닆헾헾닟뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤킧펦뷸탐럖컶ꆣ럖컶뇭쏷,1998쓪틔살컒맺쪵쪩뗄믽벫닆헾헾닟뛔좫맺뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤ꆢ쪡럝뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뫍벼쫵뷸늽뻟폐뷏잿뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃,떫뛔쪡럝뺭볃킧싊쳡룟좴뻟폐쏷쿔뗄틖훆ퟷ폃ꆣퟜ쳥짏쮵,믽벫닆헾헾닟뛔컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤훊솿뗄쳡룟웰떽쇋훘튪뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃,떫퓚뻟쳥쪵쪩뗄맽돌훐,뮹듦퓚ퟅ훮죧횧돶뷡릹늻뺡뫏샭ꆢ맽럖잿뗷쫽솿뛸뫶쫓쪹폃킧싊뗈늻ퟣ횮뒦ꆣ[맘볼듊]ꆡ믽벫닆헾헾닟;좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤;쪱뇤닎쫽쒣탍;쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍[훐춼럖샠뫅]ꆡF81210ꆡ[컄쿗뇪쪶싫]ꆡAꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]ꆡ100025420(2005)0420054209ꆡꆡ냩쯦ퟅ컒맺닆헾헾닟뗄탍,벴듓믽벫닆헾뛸볓쯙컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽뗄뇤ꆣ헾닟쿲컈붡닆헾헾닟,듓1998쓪훁2004쓪쪵캪듋,놾컄뻍믽벫닆헾헾닟뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊쪩듯7쓪횮뻃뗄믽벫닆헾헾닟탻룦뷡쫸쇋ꋙ,떫퓶뎤뗄펰쿬ퟷ뚨솿럖컶ꆣ본폚믽벫닆헾헾닟쫇틔웤뛔뺭볃뗄펰쿬늢캴좻뛸횹ꆣ믘쫗맽좥,믽벫퓶볓횧돶캪훷,퓚퓶볓횧돶훐폖틔퓶볓닆헾춶닆헾헾닟뗄킧맻떽뗗폐뛠듳,헢늻뷶맘쾵떽뛔믽캪훷,쯹틔,컒쏇훷튪뾼달닆헾횧돶뫍닆헾춶뛔벫닆헾헾닟뗄헽좷움볛,뛸쟒뛔뷱뫳쪵쪩컈붡닆좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄펰쿬,춬쪱튲뾼달웤쯻횧돶헾헾닟튲뻟폐훘튪뗄뺭볃몬틥ꆣ쿮쒿뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤닺짺뗄펰쿬ꆣ컒맺톧쫵뷧튻횱맘힢믽벫닆헾헾닟뗄킧맻컊쳢,뷸탐쇋듳솿쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ떫헢킩퇐뺿듳뛠벯훐튻ꆢ믽벫닆헾헾닟뛔좫맺뺭볃폚뾼달믽벫닆헾헾닟뗄쫽솿킧펦,냼삨믽벫닆헾좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄펰쿬헾닟뗄돋쫽[1]ꆢ믽벫닆헾헾닟쫇럱듦퓚업벷킧펦[2]뫍믽벫닆헾헾닟뗄뻍튵킧펦[3]ꆡꆡ(튻)쒣탍짨뚨,뛸뫶싔쇋믽벫닆헾헾닟뛔뺭볃퓶뎤훊솿뗄펰쿬,벴믽벫닆헾캪쇋좫쏦뗘뾼달믽벫닆헾헾닟뛔좫맺뺭볃좫헾닟쫇럱폐킧뗘듙뷸쇋좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄쳡룟튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤(RTFP)뗄펰쿬,컒쏇늻뷶ퟅ훘,듓[쫕룥죕웚]ꆡ2005204211[믹뷰쿮쒿]ꆡ맺볒짧믡뿆톧믹뷰훘뗣쿮쒿(04AJY006)[ퟷ헟볲뷩]ꆡ맹쟬췺(1964-),뫓놱듳뎧죋,뺭볃톧늩쪿,훐맺죋쏱듳톧뷌쫚,늩쪿짺떼쪦;볖뾡톩(1972ꆪ),뫓놱새랻죋,훐맺죋쏱듳톧늩쪿퇐뺿짺ꆣꆡꆡꋙꆡ컒맺헾뢮듓2004쓪틁쪼,뻍웴뚯쇋횼퓚뿘훆뺭볃맽죈쟷쫆뗄뫪맛뗷뿘,듓헢룶틢틥짏붲,컒쏇퓚럖컶훐냑믽벫닆헾헾닟뗄쪵쪩웚볤뚨캪1998ꆪ2003쓪ꆣꆪ54ꆪ
뾼달닆헾ퟜ횧돶(GE)뫍닆헾춶(FI)뗄펰쿬,뮹ꆡꆡ뛔폚짏쫶쪱뇤닎쫽쒣탍,컒쏇뿉틔붫웤킴돉뾼달웤쯻닆헾횧돶쿮쒿죧믹놾붨짨횧돶(CCE)ꆢힴ첬뿕볤쒣탍뗄탎쪽:뿆톧퇐뺿횧돶(SRE)ꆢ횧얩횧돶(SAE)ꆢ뢧탴뫍맛닢랽돌:RTFPt=ꛂ(t)X(t)+ꛅt(4)짧믡뢣샻횧돶(PWE)뫍뷌폽횧돶(EE)뗄펰쿬ꆣힴ첬랽돌:ꛂ(t)=ꛂ(t-1)+vt(5)캪쇋뇜쏢쫽뻝솿뗄쿞훆,늢룼뫃뗘랴펳뺭볃룄룯ꆢ룷훖췢늿돥믷뫍뫪맛뺭볃헾닟뇤뮯뗄펰쿬,컒쏇죅뚯쿮럖늼:(ꛅꛒ2ꆡ0t,vt)ꇤꆫ0N,00ꆡ(6)R닉폃쪱뇤닎쫽쒣탍ꆣ웤훐X(t)=(1,CCEt,SREt,SAEt,PWEt,컒쏇릹붨3룶쪱뇤닎쫽쒣탍:쒣탍1냼삨닆EEt)ꇤ,1뇭쪾맛닢랽돌(4)훐몬폐뷘뻠쿮,ꛂ(t)=헾ퟜ횧돶뫍좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤,쒣탍2냼삨닆헾(ꛂ0t,ꆭ,ꛂ5t)ꇤ캪쪱뇤쾵쫽,R캪킭랽닮뻘헳ꆣ춶뫍좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤,쒣탍3냼삨믹놾붨짨(뛾)펰쿬럖컶횧돶ꆢ뿆톧퇐뺿횧돶ꆢ횧얩횧돶ꆢ뢧탴뫍짧믡뢣샻1979ꆪ2003쓪볤좫맺뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶횧돶ꆢ뷌폽횧돶뫍좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤ꆣ틔쒣탍3뎤쫽뻝,닉폃뗄쫇뇊헟폚2004쓪닢쯣뗄뷡맻ꆣ[4]캪샽,웤뻟쳥탎쪽캪:듋볤닆헾ퟜ횧돶ꆢ닆헾춶ꆢ믹놾붨짨횧돶ꆢ뿆톧ꆡꆡRTFPt=ꛂ0t+ꛂ1t3CCEt+ꛂ2t3SREt+퇐뺿횧돶ꆢ횧얩횧돶ꆢ뢧탴뫍짧믡뢣샻횧돶뫍뷌폽ꛂ3t3SAEt+ꛂ4t3PWEt+횧돶뗄쫽뻝살풴폚샺쓪뗄ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ뫍ꆶ훐ꛂ5t3EEt+ꛅt(1)맺닆헾쓪본ꆷ,늢틀뻝쿠펦뗄볛룱횸쫽헛쯣돉틔웤훐ꛂ0t캪쪱뇤뷘뻠쿮,ꛂit(i=1,2,3,4,5)캪룷쿮1978쓪캪믹웚뗄쪵볊횵ꆣꋙ닆헾횧돶뗄쪱뇤쾵쫽,쯼랴펳쇋룷쿮닆헾횧돶뛔틔짏쫶쫽뻝캪믹뒡,컒쏇샻폃뾨뛻싼싋늨뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄떥캻펰쿬솦뛈ꆣ볙짨헢킩쪱룷ힴ첬뿕볤쒣탍뷸탐풤닢랽닮럖뷢,늢샻폃ퟮ듳뇤닎쫽ퟱ톭튻룶쯦믺폎ퟟ맽돌,퓲폐:쯆좻맀볆뗃떽룷뇤솿뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄쪱뇤ꆡꆡꛂit=ꛂit-1+vit,펰쿬쾵쫽,뻟쳥뷡맻볻뇭1ꆣ틀뻝룷뇤솿뗄쪱뇤ꆡꆡi=0,1,ꆭ,5(2)펰쿬쾵쫽벰웤쎿쓪뇤뮯,컒쏇맀쯣돶룷뇤솿틽랢(1)쪽뫍(2)쪽훐뗄ꛅt뫍vit캪죅뚯쿮,볙짨쯼뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄쓪뛈뇤뮯,뻟쳥뷡맻볻뇭쏇캪뛀솢춬럖늼쟒ퟱ톭죧쿂헽첬럖늼:2ꆣ춬쪱,틀뻝룷뇤솿틽랢뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄ꆡꆡꛅtꆫi1i1d1N(0,ꛒꛅ2),쓪뛈뇤뮯틔벰좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊뗄쿖쪵뇤뮯,ꆡꆡvitꆫi1i1d1N(0,ꛒ2vi),컒쏇맀쯣돶룷뇤솿뛔좫맺뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤ꆡꆡꆡꆡi=0,ꆭ,5(3)싊뇤뮯뗄릱쿗싊,뻟쳥뷡맻볻뇭3ꆣ뇭1닆헾ퟜ횧돶ꆢ닆헾춶뫍룷닆헾횧돶쿮쒿뛔좫맺뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄쪱뇤펰쿬쾵쫽쓪GE펰쿬쾵쫽FI펰쿬쾵쫽CCE펰쿬쾵쫽SRE펰쿬쾵쫽SAE펰쿬쾵쫽PWE펰쿬쾵쫽EE펰쿬쾵쫽19800100010100040100040100010100010100000100011981010001010009010015-010013-010008-010002-0100371982010010010049010463011804-012490-0158280103991983010010010047010698-016733010298-0194910131661984010023010066011161-017732-012798-01842401436519850100650101010602-013879-010526-0185840123601986010070010107010204010750010730-1113530106301987010045010097010193013273-011101-017557-0103351988010046010086010073012438010212-01873-0100711989010047010075010071011893010686-110113010109ꋙ놾컄훐뗄닆헾춶횸만뚨닺춶훐맺볒풤쯣쓚늦뿮뗄늿럖,쪵볊닆헾춶쫇틀뻝만뚨닺볛룱횸쫽헛쯣뗃떽뗄,웤쯻쪵볊횵쫇틀뻝짌욷쇣쫛볛룱횸쫽헛쯣뗃떽뗄,웤훐맘폚만뚨닺볛룱횸쫽뗄맀쯣,쟫닎퓄맹쟬췺ꆢ볖뾡톩:ꆶ훐맺잱퓚닺돶폫닺돶좱뿚뗄맀쯣ꆷ,퓘ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ,2004,(5)ꆣꆪ55ꆪ
탸잰뇭쓪GE펰쿬쾵쫽FI펰쿬쾵쫽CCE펰쿬쾵쫽SRE펰쿬쾵쫽SAE펰쿬쾵쫽PWE펰쿬쾵쫽EE펰쿬쾵쫽1990010042010136010098012882-010131-1100900100401991010026010135010095013113-010318-019909-0100451992010023010117-010108014006-011079-010875-0103541993010035010095-010144014574-010742-013598-0101871994010042010093-010135014480-010892-012775-0102401995010043010094-010123014314-010906-012920-010162199601003701009-010133014422-010784-013210-010208199701002901009-010148014560-010836-012846-0102871998010019010089-010082013838-010820-013613-0102261999010009010064-010071013659-010845-012931-010184200001000201004-010179013488-010627-010640-0104592001010001010043-010198013461-010597010103-0104472002-0100003010034-010152013104-010547-011054-01036520030100005010039-010161013040-010824011048-010432뻹횵010026010075010085011864-010623-014725010293(1980-2003)뻹횵010005010052-010141013432-01071-011181-010352(1998-2003)뇭2닆헾ퟜ횧돶ꆢ닆헾춶뫍룷닆헾횧돶쿮쒿틽랢뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊뗄쓪뛈뇤뮯(냙럖뗣)쓪RTFP뇤뮯RTFP뇤뮯RTFP뇤뮯RTFP뇤뮯RTFP뇤뮯RTFP뇤뮯RTFP뇤뮯(GE)(FI)(CCE)(SRE)(SAE)(PWE)(EE)1980-01012-01046-01046-010001-01001200100141981-01011-01053-01132010054010075-010002-010197198201062-0100701274014065-1106010136270144181983011410136141377-715421011451-1189574130141984014930136791815-818089-116279-013207718998198501776-0138121834011513011382-2152425152091986014130113201123012106019239-2113821158921987-0132-01208-11562-115694-0106030140140101881988-01507-01794-01522-11942-010035112944-010341989-01255-01469-01353-113756013427-012013-01041119900140501066012619111859-011291-21133301079619910126-01253-01016215567-012289-419568-011191199201177-013570116231544-015933011746-0195371993015580114901211210438-015501-01008-013756199401194-0106601351-019107-011758-013167-017745199501210112-01189-016763017282-015119-011234199601684-01061-01247312591-11113-014702-01804619970193901173-01408618809-110241-019786-01895919980192411208-01873411774-117649-311966-11344619990167911159-11521210383-116481-111197-1129222000011630121-01051319301-117621-016474-3164120010108901471-21434131012-21668011621-5141752002-0102901537-219141019276-311015-313345-518871200301038-01537-113421410317-01787318139-911979ꆪ56ꆪ
탸잰뇭쓪RTFP뇤뮯RTFP뇤뮯RTFP뇤뮯RTFP뇤뮯RTFP뇤뮯RTFP뇤뮯RTFP뇤뮯(GE)(FI)(CCE)(SRE)(SAE)(PWE)(EE)뻹횵012530107201241721314-016672-017727-014612(1980-2003)뻹횵0130201508-115223916862-119553-017204-414634(1998-2003)뇭3닆헾ퟜ횧돶ꆢ닆헾춶뫍웤쯻닆헾횧돶쿮쒿뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊뇤뮯뗄릱쿗싊(%)맛닢횵닆헾닆헾춶믹놾붨짨뿆톧퇐뺿횧얩횧돶뢧탴뫍짧믡뷌폽횧돶ퟜ횧돶횧돶횧돶뢣샻횧돶1980ꆪ2003욽뻹ꚤRTFP011012530107201241721314-016672-017727-014612쓪볤릱쿗싊1001002531007210024117231410-66712-77217-461121998ꆪ2003욽뻹ꚤRTFP013380130201508-11522391686-11955-0172-41463쓪볤릱쿗싊1001008913515013-4501382865168-57814213102-1320141ꆡꆡ1.닆헾ퟜ횧돶뗄펰쿬붵쟷쫆ꆣ쿠펦뗘,듋볤닆헾ퟜ횧돶ퟜ쳥짏폐킧뗘춼1캪1980ꆪ2003쓪볤닆헾ퟜ횧돶뛔좫튪듙뷸쇋좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤,틽랢좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄쪱뇤펰쿬쾵쫽춼,춼2캪1980ꆪ뎤싊쓪욽뻹퓶볓01253룶냙럖뗣(1997쓪듯떽ퟮ2003쓪볤닆헾ퟜ횧돶쯹떼훂뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶듳,캪01939룶냙럖뗣,1988쓪듯떽ퟮ킡,캪뎤싊뗄쓪뛈뇤뮯춼ꆣ-01507룶냙럖뗣),뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쳡룟뗄릱쿗싊듯떽253%ꆣ1998ꆪ2003쓪볤,튻랽쏦,닆헾ퟜ횧돶뷏쿔훸뗘듙뷸쇋좫맺뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤,틽랢좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쓪욽뻹퓶볓01302룶냙럖뗣,쏷쿔룟폚헻룶퇹놾웚쮮욽;쇭튻랽쏦,웤떥캻펰쿬솦뛈벴떥캻닆헾ퟜ횧돶뇤뮯틽랢뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뇤뮯(펰쿬쾵쫽뻹횵캪010005)틔벰뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쳡룟뗄릱쿗싊(캪89135%)뚼풶풶킡폚헻룶퇹놾웚쮮욽ꆣ듋췢,퓚헻룶믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,닆헾ퟜ횧돶뗄떥캻펰쿬솦뛈뫍틽랢뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤쓪뛈뇤뮯,뻹돊쿖돶훰쓪쿂붵뗄쟷쫆ꆣ2.닆헾춶뗄펰쿬1980ꆪ2003쓪볤닆헾춶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄쪱뇤펰쿬쾵쫽뫍닆헾춶떼훂뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊뗄쓪뛈뇤뮯럖뇰볻춼3뫍춼4ꆣ평춼1뿉틔뾴돶,1980ꆪ2003쓪볤,닆헾ퟜ횧돶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤믹놾짏뚼쫇헽쿲펰쿬(2002쓪돽췢),떫솦뛈뷏킡(펰쿬쾵쫽뻹횵캪010026),쟒퓚늻춬쪱웚쓚폐쏷쿔늻춬:1980ꆪ1986쓪볤,펰쿬솦뛈돊쿖뿬쯙엊짽쫆춷,늢폚1986쓪듯떽ퟮ듳,캪01007,듋뫳,뇣돊쿖훰늨쿂ꆪ57ꆪ
ꆡꆡ평춼3뿉틔뾴돶,1980ꆪ2003쓪볤,닆헾춶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뚼쫇헽쿲펰쿬,떫솦뛈뷏킡(펰쿬쾵쫽뻹횵캪010075),쟒퓚늻춬쪱웚쓚쏷쿔늻춬:1980ꆪ1990쓪볤,펰쿬솦뛈돊쿖엊짽쫆춷,폚1990쓪듯떽ퟮ듳,캪010136,듋뫳,뇣돊쿖돶훰늨쿂붵쟷쫆ꆣ쿠펦뗘,듋볤닆헾춶퓚ퟜ쳥짏듙뷸쇋좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤,틽랢좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쓪욽뻹퓶볓01072룶냙럖뗣,떫늨뚯쿠뛔뻧쇒(웤훐퓚1998쓪듯떽ퟮ듳,캪11208룶냙럖뗣,퓚1988쓪듯떽ퟮ킡,캪-01794룶냙럖뗣),뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쳡룟뗄릱쿗싊듯떽72%ꆣ믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵쪩웚볤쯘짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤,틽랢좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쓪욽,닆헾춶쿔훸뗘듙뷸쇋좫맺뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤,틽랢좫튪쯘뻹퓶볓012417룶냙럖뗣,뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쓪욽뻹퓶볓쇋01508룶냙럖뗣쳡룟뗄릱쿗싊캪24117%ꆣ떫폫헻룶퇹놾웚뗄쟩,뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쳡룟뗄릱쿗싊듯떽뿶늻춬,믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,믹놾붨짨횧돶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뻟폐랴쿲펰쿬쟒솦뛈쿠뛔뷏잿15013%,쏷쿔룟폚헻룶퇹놾웚쮮욽ꆣ떫쇭튻랽쏦,닆헾춶뗄떥캻펰쿬솦뛈(펰쿬쾵쫽뻹횵캪(펰쿬쾵쫽뻹횵캪-010141),쏷쿔뗘틖훆쇋좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤,틽랢좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쓪욽010052)풶풶킡폚헻룶퇹놾웚쟩뿶,쟒떥캻펰쿬솦뛈뫍틽랢뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤쓪뛈뇤뮯퓚헻룶뻹붵뗍115223룶냙럖뗣,뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,뻹돊쿖돶훰쓪쿂붵쟷쫆쳡룟뗄릱쿗싊캪-450138%ꆣ,웤훐퓚(2)뻍뿆톧퇐뺿횧돶뛸퇔,1980ꆪ2003쓪볤,2003쓪,평폚닆헾춶복짙,틽랢좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쿂붵쇋웤뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤퓚듳뛠쫽쓪럝뻹쫇헽쿲펰01537룶냙럖뗣ꆣ3.웤쯻닆헾횧돶쿮쒿뗄펰쿬쿬쟒솦뛈뫜듳(펰쿬쾵쫽뻹횵캪011864),쿔훸듙춼뷸쇋좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤,틽랢좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤5쏨쫶쇋1980ꆪ2003쓪볤웤쯻닆헾횧돶쿮쒿뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄쪱뇤펰쿬쾵쫽싊쓪욽뻹퓶볓21314룶냙럖뗣,릱쿗싊룟듯,춼6쿔쪾돶2314%ꆣ믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,뿆톧퇐뺿횧돶뛔1980ꆪ2003쓪볤웤쯻닆헾횧돶쿮쒿쯹떼훂뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊뗄쓪뛈뇤뮯춼ꆣ좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄헽쿲펰쿬솦뛈룼듳(펰쿬쾵쫽룷쿮닆헾횧돶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄펰쿬뇭뻹횵캪013432),뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃쿖퓚뇭쿖뗃룼캪춻돶,틽랢좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쓪욽뻹:퓶볓916862룶냙럖뗣,릱쿗싊룼룟듯2865168%ꆣ(1)뻍믹놾붨짨횧돶뛸퇔,1980ꆪ2003쓪볤,웤뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄떥캻펰쿬솦뛈뷏킡(펰(3)횧얩횧돶퓚1980ꆪ2003쓪볤뗄듳뛠쫽쪱쿬쾵쫽뻹횵캪웚,뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뻹쫇랴쿲펰쿬쟒솦뛈쿠010085),떫뷏쿔훸뗘듙뷸쇋좫튪뛔뷏듳(펰쿬쾵쫽뻹횵캪-010623),뛔좫튪쯘짺ꆪ58ꆪ
닺싊퓶뎤뻟폐뷏잿뗄틖훆ퟷ폃,틽랢좫튪쯘짺닺컒맺쪡럝뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤ꆢ벼쫵뷸늽싊뫍싊퓶뎤싊쓪욽뻹쿂붵016672룶냙럖뗣,릱쿗싊캪킧싊뇤뮯뗄펰쿬ꆣꋚ놾컄톡좡뗄닆헾헾닟뇤솿틀-66712%ꆣ믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,횧얩횧돶뛔좻쫇닆헾ퟜ횧돶ꆢ닆헾춶벰웤쯻닆헾횧돶쿮쒿좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄랴쿲펰쿬솦뛈룼듳(펰쿬쾵(죧믹놾붨짨횧돶ꆢ뿆톧퇐뺿횧돶ꆢ횧얩횧돶ꆢ뢧탴쫽뻹횵캪-01071),뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄틖훆뫍짧믡뢣샻횧돶뫍컄뷌컀횧돶)ꆣꋛ뛔폚좫튪쯘ퟷ폃뇭쿖뗃룼캪춻돶,틽랢좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊짺닺싊뇤솿,컒쏇늻뷶뾼싇쇋좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤,쓪욽뻹쿂붵119553룶냙럖뗣,떫뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊뛸쟒뮹뾼싇쇋웤뻟쳥릹돉벴벼쫵뷸늽싊(RTP)퓶뎤싊쳡룟뗄릱쿗싊싔폐뫃,캪-57814%ꆣ뫍킧싊뇤뮯(REF)ꆣ듋췢,캪쇋뛔믽벫닆헾헾닟(4)퓚1980ꆪ2003쓪볤뗄듳뛠쫽쪱웚,뢧탴뗄펰쿬폐룼짮뿌뗄죏쪶,놾컄늻뷶뾼달쇋믽벫닆헾뫍짧믡뢣샻횧돶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뻹쫇랴쿲펰헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,뮹뾼달쇋1991ꆪ1997쓪볤뗄쟩뿶ꆣ쿬쟒솦뛈뫜듳(펰쿬쾵쫽뻹횵캪-014725),뛔좫헢퇹,컒쏇탨튪릹붨18룶쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍ꆣ튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뻟폐뷏잿뗄틖훆ퟷ폃,틽랢좫튪평폚컒쏇닉폃뗄쏦냥쫽뻝쪱볤뿧뛈뷏뛌뛸뫡쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쓪욽뻹쿂붵017727룶냙럖뗣,릱뷘쏦훷쳥뷏뛠,쯹틔닮틬훷튪뇭쿖퓚뫡뷘쏦늻춬쿗싊캪-77217%;뛸퓚믽벫닆헾헾닟웚볤,뢧탴뗄룶쳥횮볤,벴룶쳥뗄닮틬훷튪쳥쿖퓚뷘뻠쿮짏,뫍짧믡뢣샻횧돶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄랴쿲펰쿬뛸킱싊쾵쫽캪뎣쫽ꆣ헢퇹,틔닆헾ퟜ횧돶뛔좫튪솦뛈폐쯹복죵(펰쿬쾵쫽뻹횵캪-011181),뛔좫쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄펰쿬쒣탍캪샽,폐죧쿂탎쪽:튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쳡룟뗄릱쿗싊튲룄짆뫜뛠(캪ꆡꆡRTFPi,t=ꛁ+ꛌi+ꛂ3GEit+ꛅit-213102%),떫뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄틖훆ퟷ폃ꆡꆡꆡꆡi=1,2,ꆭ,29(7)늢쎻폐쏷쿔룄짆,틽랢좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쓪욽웤훐RTFPi,t뫍GEit럖뇰캪뗚i룶쪡럝t웚뻹쿂붵017204룶냙럖뗣ꆣ뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뫍닆헾ퟜ횧돶,ꛂ캪펰쿬쾵(5)퓚1980ꆪ2003쓪볤뗄듳뛠쫽쪱웚,뷌폽쫽,ꛁ+ꛌi캪뷘뻠쿮ꆣ뷘뻠쿮훐뗄ꛌi뛈솿쇋룶쳥횧돶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뻹쫇랴쿲펰쿬,쟒뻟폐볤뗄닮틬,죧맻ꛌi캪좷뚨쫽,퓲돆쒣탍(7)캪만뚨뷏잿뗄틖훆ퟷ폃,틽랢좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쓪욽펰쿬쒣탍;죴ꛌi쫇튻룶쯦믺죅뚯,퓲돆(7)캪쯦믺뻹쿂붵014612룶냙럖뗣,릱쿗싊캪-46112%,떫펰쿬쒣탍;죴ꛌi늻쯦룶쳥뛸룄뇤,퓲돆(7)캪믬뫏퓚1982ꆪ1987쓪볤쿔훸뗘듙뷸쇋좫튪쯘짺닺싊믘맩쒣탍,헢룶쒣탍늢럇퇏룱틢틥짏뗄쏦냥쫽뻝뗄퓶뎤ꆣ뛸퓚믽벫닆헾헾닟웚볤,뷌폽횧돶뛔좫쒣탍,뿉틔횱뷓샻폃OLS뷸탐믘맩맀볆ꆣ틲듋,튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄랴쿲펰쿬솦뛈룼듳(펰쿬쾵쫽컒쏇퓚쪹폃쒣탍(7)쪱,쫗쿈튪뷸탐쒣탍짨뚨볬뻹횵캪-010352),틖훆ퟷ폃뇭쿖뗃룼캪춻돶,틽퇩,틔뻶뚨닉폃쓄훖탎쪽뗄믘맩쒣탍ꆣ뻟쳥뗄볬랢좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쓪욽뻹쿂붵414634룶냙퇩랽램쫇샻폃BP삭룱샊죕돋쫽볬퇩[5]살에뛏쫇럖뗣,릱쿗싊룼쫇듯떽-1320141ꆣꋙ톡좡믬뫏믘맩쒣탍뮹쫇쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍,죴좷뚨쪹폃쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍,퓙샻폃H짨뚨볬퇩[6]에뛏쫇톡뛾ꆢ믽벫닆헾헾닟뛔쪡럝뺭볃좡만뚨펰쿬쒣탍,뮹쫇톡좡쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍ꆣ좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄펰쿬(뛾)펰쿬럖컶뛔폚1991ꆪ1997쓪볤뫍1998ꆪ2003쓪볤컒ꆡꆡ(튻)쒣탍짨뚨맺쪡럝뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤ꆢ벼쫵뷸늽싊뫍킧컒쏇샻폃쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍뾼달믽벫닆헾헾닟뛔싊뇤뮯쫽뻝,컒쏇닉폃뗄쫇맹쟬췺ꆢ헔횾퓅뫍볖뾡ꋙ믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,뷌폽횧돶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤죧듋뺪죋뗄틖훆ퟷ폃폫컒쏇춨뎣뗄죏쪶쏷쿔듦퓚욫닮ꆣ헢뿉쓜쫇평폚뷌폽횧돶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃탨튪뺭맽뫜뎤뗄쪱볤닅쓜쿔쿖돶살ꆣꋚ캪쇋탐컄랽뇣,컒쏇붫컒맺쪡ꆢ횱쾽쫐뫍ퟔ훎쟸춳튻볲돆캪쪡ꆣ컒맺쒿잰돽룛냄첨췢릲폐31룶쪡,평폚훘쟬돉캪횱쾽쫐쪱볤뷏뛌,컒쏇붫훘쟬쫐뗄쫽뻝볓죫쯄뒨쪡살뾼싇ꆣ듋췢,평폚컷님ퟔ훎쟸뗄쫽뻝컊쳢,컒쏇튲쎻폐뾼싇컷님ퟔ훎쟸ꆣꋛ평폚룷쪡좱랦췪헻뗄뿆톧퇐뺿횧돶쫽뻝,폫짏뷚늻춬,놾뷚뗄뿆톧퇐뺿횧돶캪뿆톧쫂튵럑뫍뿆벼죽쿮럑횮뫍ꆣ춬쪱평폚좱랦떥뛀뗄뷌폽횧돶쫽뻝,놾뷚쎻폐뾼달뷌폽횧돶,뛸쫇뾼달쇋컄뮯ꆢ뷌폽뫍컀짺횧돶ꆣꆪ59ꆪ
톩뗄맀쯣뷡맻ꆣ[7]듋볤룷쪡닆헾ퟜ횧돶ꆢ룷쿮닆헾쪵볊횵ꆣ틔짏쫶쫽뻝캪믹뒡늢룹뻝톡좡뗄늻춬쒣횧돶뫍닆헾춶쫽뻝살풴폚샺쓪뗄ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪탍,컒쏇맀쯣돶룷뇤솿뛔쪡럝뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊본ꆷꆶꆢ훐맺닆헾쓪본ꆷ뫍룷쪡ꆶ춳볆쓪본ꆷ,늢틀뻝퓶뎤ꆢ벼쫵뷸늽싊뫍킧싊뇤뮯뗄펰쿬쾵쫽,뻟쳥뷡룷쪡쿠펦뗄볛룱횸쫽헛쯣돉틔1978쓪캪믹웚뗄맻볻뇭4ꆣ뇭4룷쒣탍뗄짨뚨볬퇩뫍맀쯣뷡맻ퟔ뇤솿\틲뇤솿좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤벼쫵뷸늽싊킧싊뇤뮯쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍1998ꆪ2003쒣탍짨뚨볬퇩BP볬퇩:163156(0100)BP볬퇩:135172(0100)BP볬퇩:36199(0100)닆쓪볤H볬퇩:0110(0175)H볬퇩:3107(0108)H볬퇩:2121(0114)헾ퟜ펰쿬쾵쫽010144(4198,0100)010197(8136,0100)-010037(114,0116)횧만뚨펰쿬쒣탍믬뫏믘맩쒣탍믬뫏믘맩쒣탍돶1991ꆪ1997쒣탍짨뚨볬퇩BP볬퇩:719(0100)BP볬퇩:0125(0162)BP볬퇩:0108(0178)쓪볤H볬퇩:1715(0100)펰쿬쾵쫽-010866(411,0100)-010038(0155,0159)010036(0136,0172)쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍만뚨펰쿬쒣탍쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍1998ꆪ2003쒣탍짨뚨볬퇩BP볬퇩:16911(0100)BP볬퇩:15411(0100)BP볬퇩:3517(0100)닆쓪볤H볬퇩:3138(0107)H볬퇩:915(0100)H볬퇩:0143(0151)헾펰쿬쾵쫽010816(3138,0100)011703(8114,0100)-010609(2178,0100)춶쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍믬뫏믘맩쒣탍믬뫏믘맩쒣탍1991ꆪ1997쒣탍짨뚨볬퇩BP볬퇩:713(0100)BP볬퇩:0134(0156)BP볬퇩:0101(0194)쓪볤H볬퇩:3135(0107)펰쿬쾵쫽010057(0107,019)010763(1141,0116)-010341(0144,0166)쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍쒣탍짨뚨볬퇩BP볬퇩:12712(0100)BP볬퇩:10714(0100)BP볬퇩:3219(0100)H볬퇩:7116(0121)H볬퇩:5191(0132)H볬퇩:3129(0165)1998ꆪ2003CCE펰쿬쾵쫽01057(1182,01069)010986(4113,0100)-010254(0189,0138)쓪볤SRE펰쿬쾵쫽-01044(0116,019)-01034(0116,0187)011106(0142,0168)웤SAE펰쿬쾵쫽-015664(1181,0107)-018321(3147,0100)012601(0187,0138)쯻닆PWE펰쿬쾵쫽01131(0174,0146)013138(213,0102)-011562(019,0137)헾CEW펰쿬쾵쫽01055(1139,0116)010484(1161,0111)-010138(0137,0171)횧돶만뚨펰쿬쒣탍믬뫏믘맩쒣탍믬뫏믘맩쒣탍쿮쒣탍짨뚨볬퇩BP볬퇩:4179(0103)BP볬퇩:1105(0131)BP볬퇩:1136(0117)쒿H볬퇩:7215(0100)1991ꆪ1997CCE펰쿬쾵쫽011389(017,0148)01178(2104,0104)-01224(1179,0108)쓪볤SRE펰쿬쾵쫽-110231(0171,0148)015139(017,0149)-015381(0151,0161)SAE펰쿬쾵쫽111809(215,0101)014898(2126,0103)-016452(2107,0104)PWE펰쿬쾵쫽-218109(3152,0100)011789(0136,0171)-110207(1143,0116)CEW펰쿬쾵쫽-011715(1128,012)-012127(2191,0100)013471(313,0100)ꆡꆡ힢:BP볬퇩뫍H볬퇩뫳뗄쫽ퟖ캪쿠펦뗄볬퇩춳볆솿,킡삨뫅쓚뗄쫽ퟖ캪쿠펦p횵ꆣp>5%틢캶ퟅ뷓쫜풭볙짨,뻜뻸BP볬퇩틢캶ퟅ탨톡좡쏦냥쫽뻝,뻜뻸H볬퇩틢캶ퟅ톡좡만뚨펰쿬쒣탍ꆣ펰쿬쾵쫽탐훐킡삨뫅쓚뗄쫽ퟖ캪펰쿬쾵쫽뗄Z춳볆솿뫍쿠펦p횵ꆣꆡꆡ1.닆헾ퟜ횧돶뗄펰쿬싊뗄펰쿬쾵쫽캪010197)ꆣ룷쪡닆헾ퟜ횧돶뛔쪡평뇭4뿉횪,믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,룷쪡닆럝뺭볃뗄킧싊뇤뮯뻟폐랴쿲펰쿬,떫늻뻟폐춳볆헾ퟜ횧돶뛔컒맺쪡럝뺭볃뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뫍쿔훸탔쟒솦뛈뫜킡(펰쿬쾵쫽캪-010037)ꆣ듋벼쫵뷸늽싊뻹뻟폐쿔훸뗄헽쿲펰쿬떫솦뛈뷏킡,췢,폫1991ꆪ1997쓪볤쟩뿶쿠뇈,믽벫닆헾헾닟웤훐뛔벼쫵뷸늽싊뗄펰쿬솦뛈쿠뛔뷏듳(뛔좫튪쪵쪩웚볤,룷쪡닆헾ퟜ횧돶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄펰쿬쾵쫽캪010144,뛔벼쫵뷸늽뫍벼쫵뷸늽싊뗄펰쿬뻹뗃떽쇋쏷쿔룄짆,떫뛔킧ꆪ60ꆪ
싊뇤뮯뗄펰쿬랴뛸돶쿖쇋튻뚨돌뛈뗄뛱뮯ꆣ뗄펰쿬쯆뫵뗃떽쇋튻뚨돌뛈뗄룄짆ꆣ2.닆헾춶뗄펰쿬(4)뢧탴뫍짧믡뢣샻횧돶뗄펰쿬ꆣ믽벫닆헾퓚믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,룷쪡닆헾춶뛔헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,뢧탴뫍짧믡뢣샻횧돶뛔좫튪쯘짺컒맺쪡럝뺭볃뗄좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뫍벼쫵뷸늽싊닺싊퓶뎤뫍벼쫵뷸늽싊뚼뻟폐헽쿲펰쿬쟒솦뛈뫜뻟폐쿔훸뗄헽쿲펰쿬쟒솦뛈뷏듳,웤훐뛔벼쫵뷸듳(뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄펰쿬쾵쫽캪01131,뛔늽싊뗄펰쿬솦뛈룼듳(뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄펰벼쫵뷸늽싊뗄펰쿬쾵쫽캪013138),뛔킧싊뇤뮯쿬쾵쫽캪010816,뛔벼쫵뷸늽싊뗄펰쿬쾵쫽캪뻟폐랴쿲펰쿬쟒솦뛈뫜듳(펰쿬쾵쫽캪011703)ꆣ룷쪡닆헾ퟜ횧돶뛔쪡럝뺭볃뗄킧싊뇤-011562),떫횻폐뛔벼쫵뷸늽싊뗄펰쿬뻟폐춳뮯뻟폐쿔훸뗄랴쿲펰쿬,떫솦뛈쿠뛔뷏킡(펰쿬쾵볆쿔훸탔ꆣ뷏1991ꆪ1997쓪볤뗄쟩뿶뛸퇔,듋볤쫽캪-010609)ꆣ듋췢,믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,뢧탴뫍짧믡뢣샻횧돶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤ꆢ벼쫵룷쪡닆헾춶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뫍벼쫵뷸늽싊뷸늽싊뫍킧싊뇤뮯뗄펰쿬뚼폐쏷쿔룄짆ꆣ뗄펰쿬뷏1991ꆪ1997쓪볤뻹뗃떽쇋쏷쿔룄짆,떫(5)컄뷌컀횧돶뗄펰쿬ꆣ믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵쪩뛔킧싊뇤뮯뗄펰쿬돶쿖쇋뷏듳돌뛈뗄뛱뮯ꆣ웚볤,컄뷌컀횧돶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뫍벼쫵뷸3.웤쯻닆헾횧돶쿮쒿뗄펰쿬늽싊뚼뻟폐헽쿲펰쿬쟒솦뛈뷏듳(뛔좫튪쯘짺닺(1)믹놾붨짨횧돶뗄펰쿬ꆣ믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵싊퓶뎤뗄펰쿬쾵쫽캪01055,뛔벼쫵뷸늽싊뗄펰쪩웚볤,믹놾붨짨횧돶뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뫍벼쿬쾵쫽캪010484),뛔킧싊뇤뮯뻟폐랴쿲펰쿬떫쫵뷸늽싊뻟폐헽쿲펰쿬쟒솦뛈뷏듳(뛔좫튪쯘짺솦뛈뷏킡(펰쿬쾵쫽캪-010138),떫헢킩펰쿬뚼닺싊퓶뎤뗄펰쿬쾵쫽캪01057,뛔벼쫵뷸늽싊뗄늻뻟폐춳볆쿔훸탔ꆣ폫1991ꆪ1997쓪볤쟩뿶쿠펰쿬쾵쫽캪010986),뛔킧싊뇤뮯뻟폐랴쿲펰쿬뇈,듋볤컄뷌컀횧돶뛔벼쫵뷸늽싊뗄펰쿬폐쯹룄쟒솦뛈뷏킡(펰쿬쾵쫽캪-010254),떫횻폐뛔벼짆,뛔킧싊뇤뮯뗄펰쿬퓲돶쿖쇋튻뚨돌뛈뗄뛱뮯,쫵뷸늽싊뗄펰쿬뻟폐춳볆쿔훸탔ꆣ폫1991ꆪ뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄펰쿬쎻폐쏷쿔뇤뮯ꆣ1997쓪볤쟩뿶쿠뇈,믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,믹놾붨짨횧돶뛔벼쫵뷸늽싊뗄펰쿬돶쿖쇋튻뚨돌뛈죽ꆢ뷡폯뗄죵뮯,뛸뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뫍킧싊뇤뮯뗄펰쿬쯆뫵뗃떽쇋튻뚨돌뛈뗄룄짆ꆣ춨맽짏쫶럖컶뗃떽죧쿂벸뗣뷡싛:(2)뿆톧퇐뺿횧돶뗄펰쿬ꆣ뿆톧퇐뺿횧돶퓚(1)믽벫닆헾헾닟뛔좫맺뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊믽벫닆헾헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뫍퓶뎤뻟폐뷏잿뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃,쳥쿖퓚닆헾ퟜ횧돶뫍벼쫵뷸늽싊뚼뻟폐랴쿲펰쿬떫솦뛈뷏킡(뛔좫튪닆헾춶뚼뷏쿔훸뗘듙뷸쇋좫맺뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뗄펰쿬쾵쫽캪-01044,뛔벼쫵뷸늽싊퓶뎤,웤훐닆헾춶뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃룼캪쏷쿔ꆣ떫싊뗄펰쿬쾵쫽캪-01034),뛔킧싊뇤뮯뻟폐헽쿲헢훷튪맩릦폚듋볤닆헾횧돶뫍닆헾춶뗄듳럹퓶펰쿬쟒솦뛈뷏듳(펰쿬쾵쫽캪011106),떫헢킩펰볓,웤떥캻펰쿬솦뛈킡폚룄룯뾪럅틔살뗄욽뻹쮮쿬뚼늻뻟폐춳볆쿔훸탔ꆣ헢폫1991ꆪ1997쓪볤욽,쟒돊쿖돶훰쓪쿂붵뗄쟷쫆ꆣ뻍닆헾횧돶릹돉뗄쟩뿶쿠뇈쎻폐쪲쎴쿔훸뇤뮯ꆣ뛸퇔,횻폐뿆톧퇐뺿횧돶뛔좫맺뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺(3)횧얩횧돶뗄펰쿬ꆣ횧얩횧돶퓚믽벫닆헾싊퓶뎤뻟폐뫜잿뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃쟒뷏웤쯻쪱웚뇭쿖뗃헾닟쪵쪩웚볤,뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뫍벼쫵뷸늽룼캪춻돶,뛸믹놾붨짨횧돶ꆢ횧얩횧돶ꆢ뢧탴뫍짧싊뚼뻟폐랴쿲펰쿬쟒솦뛈뫜듳(뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊믡뢣샻횧돶벰뷌폽횧돶뻹쿔훸뗘틖훆쇋좫맺뺭볃퓶뎤뗄펰쿬쾵쫽캪-015664,뛔벼쫵뷸늽싊뗄펰좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤쟒뷏웤쯻쪱웚돶쿖늻춬돌뛈뗄쿬쾵쫽캪-018321),뛔킧싊뇤뮯뻟폐헽쿲펰쿬뛱뮯,웤훐뷌폽횧돶뗄틖훆ퟷ폃ퟮ캪춻돶ꆣ쟒솦뛈뫜듳(펰쿬쾵쫽캪012601),떫횻폐뛔벼쫵(2)믽벫닆헾헾닟뛔컒맺쪡럝뺭볃좫튪쯘짺뷸늽싊뗄펰쿬뻟폐춳볆쿔훸탔ꆣ듋볤횧얩횧돶뛔닺싊퓶뎤뫍벼쫵뷸늽뻟폐뷏잿뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃,떫뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뫍벼쫵뷸늽싊뗄펰쿬뷏킧싊쳡룟뻟폐쏷쿔뗄틖훆ퟷ폃,쳥쿖퓚닆헾ퟜ횧1991ꆪ1997쓪볤돶쿖쇋쏷쿔뛱뮯,뛸뛔킧싊뇤뮯돶뫍닆헾춶뛔쪡럝뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뫍벼ꆪ61ꆪ
쫵뷸늽싊뻟폐뷏잿뗄헽쿲펰쿬,뛸뛔킧싊뇤뮯뻟(3)짏쫶뷡싛뇭쏷,튻랽쏦,1998쓪틔살쪵쪩폐랴쿲펰쿬,웤훐닆헾춶뗄펰쿬룼쿔훸,솦뛈튲뗄믽벫닆헾헾닟뛔컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤훊솿뗄쳡룟웰떽룼듳ꆣ뻍닆헾횧돶릹돉뛸퇔,믹놾붨짨횧돶ꆢ뿆톧쇋훘튪뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃ꆣ떫쇭튻랽쏦,믽벫닆헾헾닟퇐뺿횧돶ꆢ횧얩횧돶ꆢ뢧탴뫍짧믡뢣샻횧돶벰컄뷌퓚뻟쳥쪵쪩훐뮹듦퓚ퟅ훮죧횧돶뷡릹늻뺡뫏샭ꆢ컀횧돶뛔쪡럝뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤뫍킧싊뇤뮯맽럖잿뗷쫽솿뛸뫶쫓쪹폃킧싊뗈늻ퟣ횮뒦ꆣ듋뗄펰쿬룷늻쿠춬,떫뻹늻뻟폐춳볆쿔훸탔,횻폐믹췢,믽벫닆헾헾닟뛔쪡럝뺭볃좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤놾붨짨횧돶벰뢧탴뫍짧믡뢣샻횧돶뛔벼쫵뷸늽싊펰쿬뗄튻킩쳘뗣튲뇭쏷,믽벫닆헾헾닟퓚뻟쳥쪵뻟폐쿔훸뗄헽쿲펰쿬,웤훐뢧탴뫍짧믡뢣샻횧돶쪩맽돌훐늢쎻폐뫜뫃뗘헕맋떽룷쪡럝ퟔ짭뺭볃ힴ뗄펰쿬솦뛈뫜듳,뛸횧얩횧돶뛔벼쫵뷸늽싊뻟폐뿶뫍랢햹뗄쳘뗣ꆣ헢킩뚼쫇헾뢮퓚뷱뫳닆헾헾닟쿔훸뗄랴쿲펰쿬쟒솦뛈뫜듳ꆣ훆뚨뫍쪵쪩훐탨튪ퟅ훘볓틔뷢뻶뗄컊쳢ꆣ[닎뾼컄쿗]ꆡꆡ[1]ꆡ십쮨폑1닆헾헾닟폫뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쪵횤럖컶[J]1맺짧믡뿆톧,2004,(2).즽컷닆뺭듳톧톧놨,2001,(4);?타1훐맺뾪럅뺭볃쿂[4]ꆡ맹쟬췺,볖뾡톩.훐맺좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄맀쯣뗄닆헾헾닟뫍믵뇒헾닟ꆪꆪꆪ맦랶뫍쪵횤럖컶[J]1훐퇫닆[Z].훐맺닆헾뷰죚헾닟퇐뺿훐탄릤ퟷ싛컄,2004.뺭듳톧톧놨,2002,(9).[5]ꆡ[2]ꆡ맹쟬췺,헔횾퓅.싛컒맺닆헾돠ퟖ뗄삭뚯킧펦ApplicationtoModelSpecificationinEconometrics[J].[J].닆쎳뺭볃,1999,(8);폚쳬틥.뛔믽벫닆헾헾닟떭돶ReviewofEconomicsStudies,1980,(47).잰뗄벸뗣쮼뾼[J].닆뺭샭싛폫쪵볹,2002,(6).[6]ꆡ[3]ꆡ듷풰뎿.믽벫닆헾헾닟폫뫪맛뺭볃뗷뿘[J].rics[J].Econometrica,1978,(46).놱뺩:죋쏱돶냦짧,2003;싀.쳥훆탔풼쫸ꆢ뺭볃쪧뫢폫[7]ꆡ맹쟬췺,헔횾퓅,볖뾡톩.훐맺쪡럝뺭볃뗄좫튪닆헾헾닟ꆪꆪꆪ뷢컶1998쓪틔살뗄훐맺맬뺭볃[J].훐쯘짺닺싊럖컶[J].쫀뷧뺭볃,2005(5).(퓰죎뇠벭ꆡ커뺩쏶)TheEffectsoftheActiveFiscalPolicyonTotalFactorProductivityGrowthGUOQing2wang,JIAJun2xue(ResearchCenterofChinaFinancialPolicy,RenminUniversityofChina,Beijing100872)Abstract:,andtotalfactorproductivityandtechnologicalprogressofprovincialeconomy,:activefiscalpolicy;totalfactorproductivitygrowth;time2varyingparametermodel;paneldatamodelꆪ62ꆪ
